000
AGXX40 KNHC 111906
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EST MON DEC 11 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR 
THE FRESH TO STRONG NE/ELY FLOW OVER THE GULF HAS PUSHED E OF 
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. THUS...WINDS 
HAVE BACKED OFF A TOUCH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO WED...AS 
THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER NE FROM THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE 
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE 20 TO 25 KT E FLOW WILL PERSIST. SEAS 
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN THE HIGHEST WITHIN 120NM OF A LINE FROM THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 27N92W. SEAS WILL ALSO BACK OFF INTO WED 
THOUGH A RESIDUAL E SWELL WILL LINGER IN THE WRN GULF. A WEAK 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF DURING TUE AND THEN BRUSH 
ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS WED. THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH TAMER THAN 
THE LAST FEW AS A WEAKER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NW GULF LATER TUE 
THROUGH THU. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A LOW WILL 
DEVELOP N OF THE YUCATAN THU INTO FRI AND MOVE NE TOWARDS THE FL 
COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. GFS ENSEMBLE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH 
THIS FEATURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARDS A WEAKER TROUGH. HAVE OPTED 
TO GO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AT THIS POINT WITH THE WINDS 
AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN LIES IN THE NW PORTION 
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 
78W-87W. THIS AREA LIES IN A FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION 
UPSTREAM FROM AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NNE THROUGH THE NW 
BAHAMAS. THIS IS LIKELY THE WEATHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE KEYING 
IN ON FOR THE GULF LOW THEY ARE DEVELOPING LATER IN THE 
WEEK...AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE ENHANCES IT ON THU/FRI. 
REGARDLESS...WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20 
TO 25 KT RANGE WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS. THIS PERSISTS INTO TUE BUT 
DIMINISHES A NOTCH WED/THU. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE FLOW. THIS CONTINUES 
THROUGH MIDWEEK EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 25 KT NEAR THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST. 

SW NORTH ATLANTIC...
1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE JUST E OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA...BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 
30N55W AND EXTENDS SW TO 23N67W. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
FAIRLY LARGE E TO NE WIND WAVES AND SWELL ACROSS THE AREA 
ESPECIALLY S OF 27N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALSO PRODUCED A MODERATE 
LONGER PERIOD NNW SWELL THAT IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA 
RIGHT NOW. THIS SWELL SUBSIDES THROUGH MIDWEEK FROM E TO W. THE 
TRADES AND ASSOCIATED SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALSO EXPECTED TO 
BACK OFF SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES NE AND 
WEAKENS. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
ON THU BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AT THIS 
POINT. GFS IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER ON THE LOW TO MOVE ACROSS FL 
FROM THE GULF FRI/SAT SO HAVE TRENDED ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE 
FOR NOW. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WILLIS/BERG