000 AGXX40 KNHC 101833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 133 PM EST SUN DEC 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. IS SLOWLY SLIDING E TOWARDS THE ATLC COAST AND IS ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE SELY OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 20-25 KT AND ARE CORNER OFF OVER THE E PART OF THE GULF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS AT E GULF BUOY 42003 HAVE BUILT TO 11 FT AT THE MOMENT...RUNNING ABOUT 3 FT HIGHER THAN CURRENT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. CURRENT FORECAST OF SEAS 7-10 FT OVER THE SE GULF APPEARS GOOD TO HANDLE THIS. WINDS OVER THE SE GULF WILL REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH EARLY TUE THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH...GENERALLY FALLING BELOW 20 KT BY WED AS THE HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS E. A WEAK FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST ON THU ALTHOUGH IN GENERAL IT WILL ONLY SHIFT WINDS N OF 25N...AND REALLY NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT OR SO. THE FRONT LOSES MUCH OF ITS SUPPORT INTO WED AS ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS N INTO ERN CANADA BUT A SECOND TROUGH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY LATE WED/THU...GIVING THE FRONT A SECOND PUSH. THE FRONT THEN SHOULD MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA LATE THU LEAVING HIGH PRES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF FOR FRI. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANCHORED FROM 29N60W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH A BELT OF NE 20-30 KT STILL EXTENDING UP TO 400-500 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENT LOCATED ACROSS AND TO THE NE OF THE S/CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE STILL UP TO 14 FT...MAINLY NE OF THE ISLANDS ALTHOUGH SOME SWELL IS LIKELY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOME OF THE DEEPER BAHAMA CHANNELS. WINDS IN THIS BELT DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT BY MON AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE THEN 15-20 KT LATE TUE/WED AS THE ATLC HIGH SHIFTS E. WINDS BECOME S/SWLY OVER THE FAR NW PART ON THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA LATE THU AND MAINLY AFFECT THE WATERS N OF 26N ON FRI. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HOLDING SEAS TO HIGH WITH SOME OF THE ATLC SWELLS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE FNMOC WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE OLD STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN A FEW DAYS AGO IS STILL IN THE VICINITY FROM CNTRL CUBA TO HONDURAS...AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT STILL HAS WINDS 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 78W. WINDS ALSO REMAIN AT LEAST 20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE OVER THE E PART ON MON THEN FOLLOW SUIT OVER THE W/CNTRL PARTS TUE AND WED. THE PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT THU AND FRI WITH GENERALLY 10-15 KT ELY TRADES...EXCEPT FOR WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AN INSPECTION OF WAVE OBS FROM BUOYS 41100 AND 41041 E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS THEM TO BE RUNNING ABOUT 2-3 FT LOWER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...LIKELY DUE TO THE POOR HANDLING OF DECAYING SWELL AS NOTED ABOVE. FNMOC WAVES APPEAR MORE IN LINE WITH THE OBS AND THE FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED DOWN A BIT IN LINE WITH THIS GUIDANCE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG