000 AGXX40 KNHC 091839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 139 PM EST SAT DEC 9 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS OVER THE E/MIDDLE/SW GULF...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING OVER THE NW GULF TO 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE SELY BY WED AS THE HIGH SLIDES E. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SAND KEY AND SOMBRERO KEY C-MAN STATIONS IN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 27-28 KT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITHIN THE HEART OF THE STRAITS. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 15 FT WITHIN THE GULF STREAM...AND ARE STEEP IN NATURE CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE AGAINST THE CURRENT FLOW. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH BEGINNING SUN THEN REALLY SLACKEN OFF TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MID-WEEK...ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW VARYING TIMING/STRENGTH. ONE ENCOURAGING NOTE HOWEVER IS THAT BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ENSEMBLE RUN SHOW THE FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 18Z TUE. SINCE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN RELYING HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLE RUNS FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS FIELD TUE THROUGH THU SINCE IT APPEARS THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN EVENTUALLY COMES MORE IN LINE. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND NOWHERE NEAR GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL TURN NLY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WED AND THU RUNNING ABOUT 10 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. SW N ATLC... THE COLD FRONT WHICH HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA IS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 24N65W TO E CUBA BUT CONTINUES TO HAVE A BAND OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS UP TO 400 NM TO ITS NW. THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH SWELL FROM THE N HAS BUILT SEAS TO 14 FT IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE ZONE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH SUN WITH HIGH PRES REMAINING ANCHORED NEAR THE CAROLINAS...BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH MON AND TUE AS IT BEGINS TO SLIDE E. WINDS DECREASE FURTHER WED AND THU AND VEER SELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SE U.S. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS RUN TRENDS TOWARDS SOME TYPE OF VIGOROUS COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THU AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DRASTICALLY INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NW PART...BUT THIS SOLUTION IS SERIOUSLY IN DOUBT AT THE MOMENT CONSIDERING THE MODEL'S FICKLE PERFORMANCE. OTHER MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ENSEMBLE SHOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING E OF FLORIDA ON THU. THE FORECAST WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION FOR NOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... A STAGNANT PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER THE SE U.S. AND W ATLC WATERS. FRESH TO MODERATE ELY TRADES EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND ARE PARTIALLY ENHANCED ON THE BACK SIDE OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING MON (EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN) AND THESE QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THU. UNFORTUNATELY THE STORMY WEATHER OVER THE HIGH SEAS ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NE/E SWELLS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG