000 AGXX40 KNHC 081824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 124 PM EST FRI DEC 8 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING NOW PUSHED SE OF THE AREA. THE 1124 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WAS LIT UP LIKE A CHRISTMAS TREE (SHOWING WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE)...ALTHOUGH THE SWATH ENDED UP JUST E OF THE STRONGEST WIND REGIME. THE GALE WARNING OVER THE NW GULF WAS DROPPED THIS MORNING WITH BUOYS RANGING FROM 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO 30 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. UNFORTUNATELY BUOY 42055 OVER THE SW GULF STOPPED REPORTING YESTERDAY...SO THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION OR VERIFICATION OF THE SW GULF GALE. NONETHELESS...GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AREA OF WINDS TO 35 KT OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE USUAL TOPOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT RIGHT OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE 25-30 KT OVER THE E AND MIDDLE GULF ZONES AND SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN TO 30 KT THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS AGAINST THE GULF STREAM WILL PRODUCE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS AND STEEP WAVES BUILDING UP TO 14 FT WITHIN THE STRAITS. HIGH PRES SHIFTS E MON AND TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE E GULF AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TO THE W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE WITH WINDS POSSIBLY NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT W OF THE BOUNDARY. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST GULF COLD FRONT IN QUITE AWHILE WHICH HASN'T PRODUCED GALE CONDITIONS. SW N ATLC... STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS NOW FROM 31N66W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/W CUBA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MAINLY IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE POSSIBLY REACHING TO GALE FORCE. GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A SLIGHT LULL...BUT A SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL REDEVELOP JUST N OF ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMAS ISLANDS THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH S FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EWD ACROSS ANDROS/NEW PROVIDENCE/ELEUTHERA ISLANDS BY SAT MORNING. FOR THAT REASON...THE GALE WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED N OF 25N W OF 75W FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 16 FT...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE WINDS TURN NE AND SWELL BECOMES A MAJOR COMPONENT TO THE COMBINED HEIGHTS. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINDS 20-30 KT TO ITS N THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE MON AND TUE...THEN PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER E ON WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE U.S. COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG GULF AND ATLC HIGH PRES WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIODS. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX A BIT TUE INTO WED WITH WINDS DECREASING JUST A BIT. IN THE MEANTIME...MAJOR ISSUE WILL BE LARGE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS COMING FROM LONG-FETCH WIND REGIME OVER THE TRADE REGION TO THE E. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY 8-11 FT IN ELY SWELL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH MON...SUBSIDING TO 7-9 FT TUE AND WED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 25N W OF 75W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 23N W OF 94W...GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG