000 AGXX40 KNHC 071900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST THU DEC 7 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA SW ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TX...AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY S/SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE BUOYS SHOWING 10-MIN WINDS OF 20-25 KT. BUOY 42019 E OF CORPUS CHRISTI CURRENTLY HAS THE HIGHEST WINDS (25 KT GUSTING TO 29 KT) AND MATCHES EXTREMELY WELL TO A 30 KT MAXIMUM IN THE 1800 UTC GFS WIND FIELD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KT OVER THE WATERS E OF S TEXAS BY THIS EVENING...REFERENCED BY HIGH GALE PROBABILITIES IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE FIELD. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT S INTO THE SW GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT AND BE CONFINED MAINLY W OF 94W. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO ALLOW THE GALE WARNING IN THE NW GULF TO EXPIRE FRI MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXPIRATION OVER THE SW GULF SO THE BEST SOLUTION IS TO KEEP GALES IN THAT AREA UNTIL SAT MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. THE GALE WARNING OVER THE MIDDLE GULF IS MOST PROBLEMATIC AT THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT THE ENSEMBLES REALLY DON'T ADVERTISE THE POSSIBILITY...EVEN THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS SPORADIC AREAS OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE. SINCE I'M NOT SEEING ANY GALE PROBABILITIES AS IN THE W GULF...WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP THE WARNING BUT WILL SHOW SOLID 25-30 KT N/NE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND FRI. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF SAT...BUT WILL REMAIN NE/E 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND MAYBE NOT BEING REDUCED TO 15-20 KT UNTIL TUE. NLY SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE S HALF OF THE AREA...AND THEN THE NE WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 12 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT LIES JUST OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST EXTENDING SW ACROSS N FLORIDA...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N77W TO THE NRN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH WINDS PICKING UP 20-25 KT THIS EVENING THEN 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL WINDS SURGE WILL LIE ABOUT 250 NM BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL SHIFT S TO THE NRN BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. BECAUSE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN THIS SURGE...WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT UP A WARNING N OF THE FRONT W OF 75W...COVERING PERIODS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND REALIZING THAT THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS WILL ADVECT S DURING THIS TIME. THE WARNING WILL MESH WITH THE WARNINGS ALREADY PUT UP FOR THE JAX AND MLB COASTALS...AND THE GUSTS TO GALE MENTIONED BY MFL. THE FRONT STALLS FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT...AND LEAVES A SWATH OF NE/E 20-30 KT ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND SUN...DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY E OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI AND INCREASE WINDS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN THROUGH SUN WITH HIGH PRES BECOMING POSITIONED TO THE N. THE GRADIENT REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC WITH PERSISTING 20-25 KT WINDS AND LARGE 8-11 FT ELY SWELLS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF FRONT W OF 75W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING...GMZ080. GALE WARNING N OF 22N W OF 94W...GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG