000 AGXX40 KNHC 051810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST TUE DEC 5 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO AND S TEXAS WEAKENS. NONETHELESS...STRONG NE WINDS ARE STILL REPORTED FROM SHIPS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO...SWELL GENERATED FROM THE STRONG NLY FLOW OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS LINGERS IN THE SRN GULF. OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH WED. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE OF THE AREA FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS MAY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY ON WED AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N SHIFTS E. MEANWHILE A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS LATE WED ON THE E SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL MOVE REINFORCING FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG NLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WRN GULF STARTING THU NIGHT. THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE NW GULF ALONG THE COAST LATE THU...AND SW GULF ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY FRI. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EMERGING EWD FROM THE BAJA AREA MAY SERVE TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE WRN GULF. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL NUDGE UP WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NW GULF TO 35 KT FOR THU NIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE WRN GULF AS HIGH SHIFTS E...ALTHOUGH STRONG ELY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE ERN GULF S OF THE HIGH. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 67W MOVING W THROUGH THE AREA. WITH BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NW...PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER THE WRN GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WINDS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WILL SLACKEN A LITTLE AS HIGH TO THE N WEAKENS AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE E. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE GRADIENT S OF THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TIGHT. MEANWHILE ONLY MODERATE ELY WINDS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER W AND DAMPEN OUT AS IT MERGES WITH STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL ALLOW INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS OVER TROP N ATLC AND ERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS FOLLOWING. MORNING OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING NICELY S OF THE FRONT OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE E. THE FRONT WILL SAG EWD EXTENDING FROM 28N65W WED MORNING...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WASHING OUT LATE THIS WEEK. EXPECT NE WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH THROUGH WED...THEN WEAKEN ALTOGETHER AS THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. MODERATE TO LARGE ELY SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO THU. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE COAST LATE THU...REACHING 31N71W TO THE STRAITS BY EARLY FRI. 1035 MB HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW STRONG TO PERHAPS NEAR GALE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE AREA FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. CHRISTENSEN