000 AGXX40 KNHC 041840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1044 MB OVER NE MEXICO AND TEXAS IS BUILDING E OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PROMOTING STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED EVIDENCE OF 50 KT WINDS IN THE AREA. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM VERACRUZ (MMVR) SHOWED 50 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT. THE 1445Z OBSERVATION FROM COATZACOALCOS (MMMT) MEXICO ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWED SUSTAINED 40 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. TREND IS FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT STRONG GALE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...BUT COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH. THROUGH MID WEEK...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. THE RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER...AS MID RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING NEXT FRONT EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THU...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NLY FLOW. GFS IS INDICATING GALE CONDITIONS FOR THE SW GULF BY FRI. GIVEN THE PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND THE FACT THAT THE GFS HAS ACTUALLY BEEN SLIGHTLY UNDERFORECASTING THESE EVENTS...GALES ARE PLAUSIBLE FRI INTO SAT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... UPPER LOW PRES PERSISTS NEAR 18N62W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W. THE WEAKER GRADIENT NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALLOWING ONLY MODERATE WIND FLOW IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING STRONG E TO SE WINDS. LIKEWISE...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE NRN GULF IS RESULTING INCREASED NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS W REACHING 70W BY MIDDAY TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MID WEEK...EVEN AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROUGH. BY THU...THE HIGH TO THE N WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FURTHER TO THE NE...AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS S OF CUBA...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. BY FRI...WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PICK UP AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT IN THE GULF. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFF THE SE COAST...EXTENDING ALONG 31N76W TO 27N80W...REACHING 31N66W 27N80W BY EARLY TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA N OF 26N. MEANWHILE...IN THE WATERS E OF THE SRN BAHAMAS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE E WILL REMAIN UP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS WELL FOR ALL BUT PROTECTED AREAS W OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ082...S OF 21N W OF 94W THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CHRISTENSEN