000 AGXX40 KNHC 040256 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 956 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPDATE... A 0018Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SHOWING WINDS TO 50 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS IS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAN 30-METER WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS. THEREFORE...THE EVENING PACKAGE WILL INDICATE STORM WARNING OVER THE SW GULF FOR WINDS TO 50 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH EARLY MON. CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO GALE CRITERIA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. FORECASTER BERG PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL TEXAS ARE SHOWING SLP AROUND 1035 MB ALREADY THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF 1045 MB PRESSURES BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AHEAD THE REINFORCING HIGH PRES. NLY WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SWRN GULF WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER MON INTO TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE DEEP S AND WEAKENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MORE SLOWLY INTO WED ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES IN THE SRN GULF...ESPECIALLY SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NRN GULF...BUT LARGE SWELL WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF. MEANWHILE PATTERN WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY WED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WED INTO THU...PUSHING THE NEXT FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY THU. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE NRN AND WRN GULF WATERS ON FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... QUIKSCAT AND AREA BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN A WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE ATLC. WINDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER W AND THE RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK...KEEP WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM DIMINISHING UNTIL TUE/WED. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW NEAR 19N59W. THIS IS ENHANCING A SFC TROUGH TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 10N56W TO 26N46W. MORNING QUIKSCAT AND SHIP REPORTS SHOW NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ONGOING IN WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE TROP N ATLC N OF 17N...BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE AXIS N OF THE BAHAMAS. LARGE SWELL IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THIS AREA...SPAWNED FROM 2-3 DAYS OF STRONG NE FLOW OVER A LONG FETCH BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND THE RIDGE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THIS AREA AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...RIDGE WILL BUILD ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND BRING FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS TO THE TROP N ATLC E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING SWELL BY MIDWEEK. SW N ATLC... RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 27N. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH WITH FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS PERSISTING OVER WATERS E OF THE SRN BAHAMAS S OF THE RIDGE. SHIPS ARE REPORTING UP TO 10 FT SWELL IN THE SRN BAHAMAS. THE LARGE SWELL MAY PERSIST THROUGH MON IN THIS AREA...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK TONIGHT AND MON...AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SE COAST TONIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM 31N77W TO NEAR 27N80W BY MON MORNING...AND 31N66W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TUE MORNING. STRONG NLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER E TO SE THROUGH THU AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT AND HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EWD N OF THE AREA. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST THU...SHIFTING WINDS NW IN WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 90W...GMZ082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN