000 AGXX40 KNHC 271621 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1125 AM EST MON NOV 27 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GULF...KEEPING FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE IN ALL BUT THE TEXAS COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT SE FLOW IS ENHANCING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SW UNITED STATES...WITH A STRONGER REINFORCING SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC BY WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH COME INTO PHASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU/FRI...LEAVING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE THU...THEN SLOW AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT. E TO SE FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY NW FLOW TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU INTO FRI. BLOCKING RIDGE WILL KEEP EASTERN GULF WINDS AND SEAS LOWER. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... MORNING OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT SW OF HAITI IS DISSIPATING. WEAK TROUGH REMAINS N OF PANAMA...THE REMNANT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION ACTIVE IN THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE S AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND...AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BUILDS SE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MIDWEEK...PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG WITH MODERATE TO LARGE ELY SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROP N ATLC FOR ANOTHER DAY. HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE N WILL ALLOW NE FLOW TO INCREASE OVER WATERS E OF PUERTO RICO WED THROUGH SAT. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SHIP OBSERVATIONS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR THE BAHAMAS SHOW FRESH NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LARGE NE SWELL...GENERATED IN NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND 1011 MB LOW PRES NW OF THE AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH...OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WATERS N OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE MAINLY S OF 28N...PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. ELY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE BAHAMIAN WATERS AS WELL. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN