000 AGXX40 KNHC 260631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 131 AM EST SUN NOV 26 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE W GULF. A HEALTHY PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SE U.S. AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS INCREASED WINDS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS TO 15-20 KT. SEAS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING...WITH BUOYS 42003 AND 42001 SHOWING 4 AND 5 FT RESPECTIVELY...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 8 FT OVER THE STRAITS WHERE THE WINDS ARE AGAINST THE GULF STREAM. FARTHER W...RETURN FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SE U.S. FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND WILL KEEP THE PATTERN RATHER STAGNANT AT LEAST THROUGH WED. THEREAFTER...THE ELY WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL DIMINISH ON THU AS THE ATLC HIGH IS PUSHED EWD BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THAT MORNING. REGARDING THE COLD FRONT...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE W GULF TO 35-40 KT THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EVEN AT 5 DAYS OUT...THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES OF ABOUT 40% FOR GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH IS NOT TOO SHABBY. AN INSPECTION OF OTHER INDIVIDUAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS...ALSO SHOWS THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY LATE THU. WITH ALL THIS EVIDENCE AT HAND...WILL GO AHEAD AND HEADLINE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NW AND SW GULF W OF THE FRONT ON THU. WILL START WITH WINDS 25-35 KT BUT THIS VERY WELL COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS ORGANIZATION LATELY...AND REALLY ONLY A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD BE THE LAST WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS LOOKING RATHER DIFFUSE AT THIS POINT...BUT PROBABLY STILL EXTENDS FROM HAITI SW ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE HONDURAS COAST. IT TOO WILL NO LONGER HAVE ANY MAJOR EFFECTS ON THE LOCAL WEATHER. OVERRIDING FEATURE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. THE HIGH THEN BUILDS FARTHER S LATE TUE AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. BY THU...WINDS IN THESE AREAS COULD BE SUSTAINED AT 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY TO 30 KT AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY NE SWELLS IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SW N ATLC... FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO INCH EWD FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 30N63W SW TO 26N65W THEN TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES NW OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING A FETCH OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC...GENERALLY W OF 72W...WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. BUOY 41010 E OF FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEAS OF 9 FT AND FALLS IN LINE WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 20 KT THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN ALSO INCREASE TO 20 KT ON MON IN A SWATH FROM 31N65W TO THE BAHAMAS...THEN SHIFT TO THE SRN PART OF THE ZONE TUE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS INCREASING ADDITIONALLY LATE TUE INTO THU TO 20-25 KT S OF 28N WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF POCKETS OF 30 KT IN SUCH A TIGHT GRADIENT. ALSO EXPECT SEAS TO BE AN ISSUE WED AND THU WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REGISTER 12-13 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF PUERTO RICO. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG