000 AGXX40 KNHC 251706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EST SAT NOV 25 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDS INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. FRESH NELY WINDS PERSIST ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LIGHT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY PATCHES OF STRATO CUMULUS ACROSS THE GULF. FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE UNDER INFLUENCE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ENTIRE GULF...EXTENDING E TO UPPER LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC. EXPECT RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL AND NW GULF AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE NW U.S. THIS WILL PUSH THE NEXT STRONG FRONT INTO THE NW GULF LATE NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTER OVER SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W. THIS PERSISTENT SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH ANEMIC CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS HINT OF A BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NW OF THIS LOW TOWARD SWAN ISLAND AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS TO THE NE TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AREA AND THE HIGH PRES TO THE N...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PROVIDENCIA ISLAND (SKSP) HAS BEEN SHOWING FAIRLY LIGHT WIND...HINTING THAT WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX NEAR THE NICARAGUAN COAST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS...AND WILL ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. FRESH WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST ESPECIALLY OFF COLOMBIAN COAST AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N...INCREASING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW HIGH THE WINDS WILL GET...WITH 25 TO 30 KT SHOWING UP IN LATEST GFS RUN. WILL HOLD AT 20 TO 25 KT FOR NOW BUT MONITOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. OVER THE TROP N ATLC W OF PUERTO RICO...MODERATE ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY TUE...ALONG WITH THE LARGE NELY SWELL. SW N ATLC... STALLED COLD FRONT FROM AROUND 28N65W TO 20N72W WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT AHEAD OF HIGH PRES EMERGING OFF MID ATLC STATES. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS OFF THE SE COAST SHOW 15 TO 20 KT THIS MORNING. BUOY 41002 N OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SHOWING 10 FT SWELL...CORROBORATING NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. LARGE 10 TO 12 FT NLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ELY SWELL INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE SW N ATLC AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E...WITH WINDS INCREASING AND VEERING MORE E TO SE BY WED. AS IN THE CARIBBEAN...LATEST GFS RUN SHOW 25 TO 30 KT E WINDS BY WED. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN