000 AGXX40 KNHC 250605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 25 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS SLIDING E ACROSS THE SE US WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NW GULF AS THE WINDS VEER ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. MEANWHILE...THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SE GULF/FLORIDA STRAITS AND THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WED. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT OVER THE STRAITS WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE AGAINST THE CURRENT. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON WED...BUT MAY BE WED NIGHT OR THU BEFORE IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT STILL EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO ALONG 81W OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...20-25 KT...ARE W OF THE BOUNDARY. A 1008 MB LOW FORMED ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT JUST N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH IT...AND IN FACT JUST BLENDS IT INTO THE ITCZ OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SHOULD FINALLY FALL BELOW 20 KT BY TONIGHT...BUT WINDS OVER THE N PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT THROUGH WED DUE TO AN INCREASING PRES GRADIENT TO THE N. THE TRADES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH TUE...BUT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ON WED AS HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC BUILDS S. A LONG FETCH OF STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COULD ALSO INCREASE SWELLS OVER THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. SW N ATLC... A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO HAITI...BUT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER WILL BECOME AN AREA OF HIGH PRES WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OFF THE SE US COAST. BUOYS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST ALREADY INDICATE WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KT N OF THE BAHAMAS...A TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN. NE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND INCREASE SEAS TO 8-11 FT MAINLY N OF 27N/28N W OF 70W. CONDITIONS RELAX E OF FLORIDA BY LATE SUN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATE SUN/MON. HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE W ATLC TUE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LONG BELT OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS LYING S OF 28N BY WED. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC COULD BUILD SEAS TO 8-12 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THEY COULD EVEN BE 5-8 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH ROUGH SEAS BY MID-WEEK OVER THE ATLC WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG