000 AGXX40 KNHC 210627 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER ALL GULF ZONES BEHIND A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE E/MIDDLE GULF CLOSEST TO THE LOW...WHERE BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS ALMOST UNIFORMLY BUILT TO 10 FT. BASED ON THIS DATA...GFS WINDS AND NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOK A LITTLE HIGH AT THE MOMENT AND SHOW WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE VICINITY OF NOAA BUOYS 42001 AND 42003. WILL MONITOR NEXT FEW HRS BUT FOR NOW FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE E PART OF THE GULF THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE TO 20 KT BY TONIGHT...AND FINALLY FALL BELOW 20 KT BY THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF FRI AND SAT...BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE ATLC LOW HAVING MOVED OUT OF THE PICTURE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING STRONG NLY WINDS MAINLY W OF 80W. BUOY 42057 IN THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTING 1-MIN SUSTAINED WINDS TO 33 KT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IN FACT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST SW OF THE BUOY CLOSER TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA COAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW 40% PROBABILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THIS AREA AND INCREASE THE CHANCES TO 100% DOWN THE COAST OF NICARAGUA BY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...I WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THE W PART OF THE SW CARIBBEAN ZONE THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE WINDS WILL BE FUNNELED SWD ALONG THE NICARAGUAN COAST...AND FOR THE SW PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE ONLY FOR TODAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE A MAJOR PROBLEM OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHERE HIGH WIND WAVES AND NLY SWELL WILL INCREASE WAVES TO 16 FT JUST N OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA COAST. THE COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WIND SURGE STALLS ALONG 75W BY WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATES INTO A TROUGH WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND FIELD BY FRI/SAT. E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES REMAIN RATHER QUIET UNDER A TRADE WIND REGIME ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL BE IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE E OF THE ISLANDS DUE TO ATLC SWELLS. SW N ATLC... LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 32N78W. WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO GALE FORCE ON THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW...BUT THESE WINDS WILL MOVE S BY MORNING AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM DUMBBELLS AROUND...AND THE INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW BY AFTERNOON BUT AFTER THAT MODEL GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIMINISHES THE WIND FIELD...AND THE GALES COULD BE DONE S OF 31N BY EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE GALE WARNINGS UP THROUGH TONIGHT SINCE WINDS PROBABLY WON'T DECREASE COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER 0000 UTC. GFS GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF GALES THIS AFTERNOON NE OF A NEW AREA OF LOW PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 29N72W...BUT THESE CONDITIONS QUICKLY SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY EVENING ALONG WITH THE LOW. THE MAIN OCCLUDED LOW BEGINS TO SPIN DOWN WED NIGHT/THU WITH A SWATH OF STRONGER 20-25 KT WINDS LIMITED TO JUST OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR 70W THU THROUGH SAT WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND FIELD. NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED SEAS...AND THE FORECAST WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM IT MUCH SINCE GFS WINDS LOOK REASONABLE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N W OF 78W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING W OF 78W...AMZ082. GALE WARNING W OF 79W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG