000
AGXX40 KNHC 191723
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1230 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

NLY WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WITH BUOYS INDICATING NLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 
86W AND 91W. EXPECT NLY THE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE  20-25 KT 
RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH MON THEN DECREASE OVER THE 
FAR NW GULF TUE. HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS COMBINED WITH A LOW 
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL KEEP A THIGHT 
GRADIENT IN THE E GULF THROUGH MID WEEK THEN THE HIGH WEAKENS 
AND THE LOW PULLS NWD BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WINDS 
DECREASE THU AND FRI.

ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W SW TO EASTERN CUBA WILL 
BECOME STATIONARY LATER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE RATHER 
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MODELS DEVELOP A LOW E OF 
THE BAHAMAS MON NIGHT AND MOVE IT TO THE NW TUE AND WED. CURRENT 
FORECAST WORDING OF GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE AND WED LOOK 
REASONABLE AND  WILL CONTINUE WITH THESE TRENDS. THE LOW MOVES 
FURTHER N THU AND THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE 
HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN STRONG N OF AROUND 27N...THEN DECREASE 
TO BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRI.
    
STRONG NLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD SWD INTO SW 
CARIBBEAN TUE AS THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE GULF BUILDS TO THE S.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA...
THIS COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE N WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG 
WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE S OF 15N W OF 80W TUE AND 
WED ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE NOGAPS IS THE WEAKEST 
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL MENTION GUST TO GALE FORCE IN THE UP 
COMING FORECAST PACKAGE.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS