000 AGXX40 KNHC 190844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH LOW SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF...BUT THE FAR SE PART WHERE WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND WHERE RESIDUAL N SWELLS ARE FOUND. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT VERIFIED THESE RELATIVELY LIGHT CONDITIONS WHERE WINDS WHERE SEEN AS N-NE 5-10 KT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION...NE-E 5-10 KT OVER THE W PORTION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS IN A N-NE DIRECTION AT 15 KT OVER THE FAR SE PART. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 FT EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN A RESIDUAL N SWELL OVER THE FAR SE PART NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER E TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE E TO THE N OF THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NW SUN THROUGH TUE AND SHIFTS TO THE E GULF WED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG NW CAA ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUE...AND TO E OF 90W WED THEN DECREASING THU AS LIGHT NE FLOW SETS UP OVER THE GULF ...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WRN PART. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING SUN MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH TUE ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE NW...THEN DECREASING OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE GULF WED INTO THU EXCEPT THE E PART (ZONE 086) WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH WINDS N 20-25 KT AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT WED OVER MUCH OF ZONE 080 S OF 28N AND TO 1-2 FT N OF 28N. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA IS PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT S-SW WINDS EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH TUE...THEN SLOWLY MOVE E TO A PSN FROM 31N67W TO VICINITY OF WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI BY WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW PRES FORMING ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUE...MOST PROBABLY NE OF THE BAHAMAS BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION AS IT MAY EVEN FORM TO THE W OF THE FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES TAKES PLACE THEN THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC (ZONE 080) EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPING IN VERY TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING FROM SQUEEZE PLAY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILL KEEP HEADLINE OF EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS N OF 28N BETWEEN 75W-80W FOR TUE AND WED. THIS MAY BE ADJUSTED SOME BETWEEN NOW AND MON. IN ANY EVENT...NW 10 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUE OVER THE FAR WRN PART DUE TO A SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA THAT PLUNGES INTO THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING DRY COLD FRONT IN ADDITION WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPING AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING S-SW 10-15 KT N OF 23N AND SE-S 10 KT S OF 23N SUN ...THEN GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT MON INCREASING TO S-SW 20-25 KT N OF 22N TUE AND TO 15-20 KT S OF 22N. THE WINDS N OF 22N SHIFT E OF AREA OF WED...AND S OF 22N WINDS WILL BE SLY 15-20 KT. NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT N OF 22N E OF THE FRONT TUE AND WED AND TO 6 FT S OF 22N. THESE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 8 FT BY THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM CENTRAL CUBA SW TO NW COAST OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING. N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY BEING REPORTED BY SHIPS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO MON EXCEPT OVER E PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TRADES MAY INCREASE SOME LATE MON THROUGH PERHAPS WED. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO A PSN FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA AND SW TO NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BEFORE WASHING OUT WED INTO THU. THE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS STATED ABOVE...THEN IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH THU BEHIND A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA MON THROUGH THU GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHARPLY INCREASE TO 20 KT MON AND TO 20-30 KT TUE AND WED DECREASING SOME THU. WILL STATE GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH THESE WINDS FOR THIS PACKAGE AS GALE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TUE INTO EARLY WED OVER A PORTION OF THE SW PART. OTHER NWP MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD UP TO 12 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF NW WINDS. GFS SUGGESTS THAT ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE NE OF FORECAST WATERS STRENGTHENS AS IT BUILDS SW INTO THE NRN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC (ZONE 087) TUE AND WED ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY TRADES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD LAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SINCE RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EWD LATER WED AND THU AS ATLC FRONT ADVANCED EWD. NWW3 INDICATES AN ELY SWELL TO MAX OUT AT 7 OR 8 FT TUE THROUGH THUD WED MAINLY IN THE E PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY THAT SOME OF LOW PRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH TUE. ITS BEST TO WAIT TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS FEATURE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO STRONG NW SURGE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA MON AND TUE. IF SURGE VERIFIES TO BE STRONG AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THEN ANY CHANCE FOR LOW PRES TO FORM AND PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AS THE SURGE WILL DIFFUSE IT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE