000 AGXX40 KNHC 181852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY...SHIP...BUOY AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NLY FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS...WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PERSIST AND SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5-6 FEET. MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...RESULTING IN HIGH PRES OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEAKENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH BY LATE SUN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT IS LIKELY BY TOMORROW. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON MON...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM W TO E ACROSS GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAN COAST. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS...PRIMARILY IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AS THIS FRONT DISSIPATES...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TO THE HONDURAN COAST ON MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN TO THE PANAMANIAN COAST BY LATE TUE. 25 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS W OF 80W THROUGH MID WEEK. CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT CONCERNING LOW PRES FORMING N OF PANAMA. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A WEAK LOCALIZED FEATURE ALONG THE ITCZ IF IT FORMS. MODERATE SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...THEN WILL INCREASE SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC SHIFTS S. MODERATE TO FRESH SE FLOW IS LIKELY N OF VENEZUELAN COAST MON TO WED. LIGHT E FLOW OVER THE TROP N ATLC WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY MON INTO TUE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES TO THE N. NWW3 IS STILL INDICATING BUILDING SWELL IN THIS AREA THROUGH MID WEEK OF UP TO 8 FT. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO CENTRAL CUBA. CONVECTION AND WINDS ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. TWO MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH IN WATERS N OF BAHAMAS. NWP MODELS SHOWING LOW PRES FORMING GENERALLY IN THE BAHAMAS AND MOVING TO THE NNE SUN AND MON. THIS WOULD BE AHEAD OF A STRONG SURGE COMING OFF THE COAST BY LATE MON. THE SURGE ITSELF WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT. DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY EVEN BE TIGHTER BETWEEN THE LOW AND UP TO 1030 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD POSSIBLY INCREASE WINDS TO GALE CONDITIONS TUE AND WED N OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E AND THE LOW LIFTS OUT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN