000 AGXX40 KNHC 180716 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST SAT NOV 18 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND WITH LOW SEAS ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AS BEING REPORTED IN BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0030 UTC LAST NIGHT VERIFIED THESE RELATIVELY LIGHT CONDITIONS WHERE WINDS WHERE SEEN AS N-NE 5-10 KT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION...E-SE TO VARIABLE 5-10 KT OVER THE W PORTION AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS IN A N-NE DIRECTION AT 15 KT OVER THE FAR SE PART. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 FT EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN A RESIDUAL N SWELL OVER THE FAR SE PART. HIGH PRES OF 1019 MB CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NW SUN THROUGH TUE AND SHIFTS TO THE E GULF WED BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING BRINGING STRONG NW CAA ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH TUE...AND TO E OF 90W WED. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF BEGINNING SUN MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH TUE ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE NW...THEN DECREASING OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE GULF WED EXCEPT THE E PART (ZONE 086) WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH WINDS N 20-25 KT AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT WED OVER MUCH OF ZONE 080 S OF 28N AND TO 1-2 FT N OF 28N. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA IS PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY S OF 27N. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT S-SW WINDS EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. WEAK RIDGE E OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND REACH A PSN FROM 31N70W TO E CUBA BY TONIGHT...AND EXTEND FROM 31N66W TO NEAR 24N70W WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE VICINITY OF E CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT THEN IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SAME PSN TUE...AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD WED WITH THE SRN END REACHING HISPANIOLA BY WED AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LOW PRES FORMING ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONT BY TUE...MOST PROBABLY NE OF THE BAHAMAS BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION AS IT MAY EVEN FORM TO THE W OF THE FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES TAKES PLACE THEN THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC (ZONE 080) EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPING IN VERY TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING FROM SQUEEZE PLAY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILL CONSIDER ADDING HEADLINE OF EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS OVER SOME PART OF THE NW ATLC TUE AND WED. IN ANY EVENT...NW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KT OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUE OVER THE FAR WRN PART DUE TO A SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA THAT PLUNGES INTO THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING DRY COLD FRONT IN ADDITION WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPING AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING S-SW 10-15 KT N OF 23N AND SE-S 10 KT S OF 23N SUN ...THEN GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT MON INCREASING TO S-SW 20-25 KT N OF 22N TUE AND TO 15-20 KT S OF 22N. THE WINDS N OF 22N SHIFT E OF AREA OF WED...AND S OF 22N WINDS WILL BE SLY 15-20 KT. NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 FT N OF 22N E OF THE FRONT TUE AND WED AND TO 6 FT S OF 22N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE NW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA (ZONE 082) AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 22N80W SW TO INLAND THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING. N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY BEING REPORTED BY SHIPS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO MON EXCEPT OVER E PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TRADES MAY INCREASE SOME LATE MON THROUGH PERHAPS WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO S BELIZE LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO A PSN FROM FROM 22N78W TO GULF OF HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON. LATE ON SUN INTO MON FRONT BECOMES MORE TROUGH LIKE AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA AND SW TO NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE MON AND TUE. THE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AS STATED ABOVE...THEN IS FORECAST TO BUILD SEWD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH WED BEHIND A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA MON THROUGH WED. GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHARPLY INCREASE TO 20 KT MON AND TO 20-30 KT TUE AND WED. OTHER NWP MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD UP TO 12 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF NW WINDS. GFS SUGGESTS THAT ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE NE OF FORECAST WATERS STRENGTHENS AS IT BUILDS SW INTO THE NRN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC (ZONE 087) TUE AND WED ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ELY TRADES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD LAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. NWW3 INDICATES AN ELY SWELL TO MAX OUT AT 7 OR 8 FT TUE AND WED MAINLY IN THE E PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY THAT SOME OF LOW PRES WILL BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH TUE. ITS BEST TO WAIT TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS FEATURE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO STRONG NW SURGE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA MON AND TUE. IF SURGE VERIFIES TO BE STRONG AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THEN AN CHANCE FOR LOW PRES TO FORM AND PERSIST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AS THE SURGE WILL DIFFUSE IT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE