000 AGXX40 KNHC 170749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WITH COLD FRONT NOW HAVING PUSHED SE OF THE AREA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH PRES SETTLING IN ACROSS THE GULF...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST TREND INDICATED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS. NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE SE PART AND OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THE PRESENT TIME. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NW 10-15 KT OVER THE REST OF THE E GULF AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE NW GULF. SLOW SUBSIDING N SWELLS OF UP 10 FT ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N AS WELL AS OVER THE SE PART OF THE E GULF. THE HIGH WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES FROM THE NW SUN AND MON WHICH BUILDS SE ON THE HEALS OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGING STRONG NW CAA ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF INTO TUE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE OF WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF MON...OVER MUCH OF THE GULF TUE WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING OVER THE EXTREME WRN PART TUE AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD NEAR TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N77W SW TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND SW ACROSS WRN CUBA IS PRECEDED BY AS RATHER IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE JUST E OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS 150 NM EWD. THE STRONG SLY FLOW THAT WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY AND DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS DECREASED SOME...HOWEVER SE-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A RIDGE TO ITS E PERSISTS. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWS DOWN BEFORE REACHING A PSN FROM 31N70W TO E CUBA BY SAT NIGHT. LATE ON SUN...FRONT THEN IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG 31N66W TO NEAR 24N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO E CUBA...THEN PRETTY MUCH BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE SAME AREA MON AND TUE. MODELS AGAIN APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS IN FORECASTING LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT BY TUE OF NEXT WEEK...MOST PROBABLY ON THE NRN END OF THE FRONT BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE ON THE FRONT THE LOW FORMS ...OR WHETHER IT FORMS TO THE W OF THE FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES TAKES PLACE THEN THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS ALSO DEVELOPING IN VERY TIGHT GRADIENT RESULTING FROM SQUEEZE PLAY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRES N OF THE BAHAMAS AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE W. IN ANY EVENT...NW 15-20 KT WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHES TO 10 KT OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC MON BEFORE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUE OVER THE FAR WRN PART DUE TO A SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA THAT PLUNGES INTO THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAST-MOVING DRY COLD FRONT IN ADDITION WITH THE GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPING AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE E OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT BEFORE BECOMING S-SW N OF 23N AND SE-S AT SPEEDS OF 5-1O KT SUN AND GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WRN CUBA SW TO INLAND CENTRAL BELIZE. THE COLD FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE N-NE 15-20 KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THESE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO MON EXCEPT OVER E PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TRADES MAY INCREASE SOME LATE MON INTO TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO S BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO A PSN FROM FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT AFTERNOON...AND LATE ON SUN INTO MON FRONT BECOMES MORE TROUGH LIKE AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA AND SW TO NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BEFORE WASHING OUT LATE MON AND TUE. AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE E GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE BEHIND A FAST-MOVING REINFORCING ARCTIC COLD FRONT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHARPLY INCREASE TO 20 KT MON AND TO 20-25 KT TUE AS PORTRAYED AGAIN BY NWP MODELS. NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD UP TO 12 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF NW WINDS. GFS SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH FEATURE ENTERS THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE AS ATLC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. BASED ON THIS...ELY WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC INCREASE SOME TUE AS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN PRESENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST. NWP MODELS STILL LIKE TO HANG ON TO LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH TUE MON WITH CANADIAN AS USUAL SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW MOVING WNW. WILL AGAIN HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS FEATURE IN THE OUTLOOK. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE