000 AGXX40 KNHC 161829 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CURRENTLY. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRES OVER NRN MEXICO/SRN TEXAS SHIFTS E THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND RESIDUAL SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER SOUTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH FRI AS WELL. THE LULL WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO GULF WATERS EARLY SUN AND PUSH THROUGH THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT MOVING THOUGH SOUTHERN GULF WATERS WILL PUSH THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY AND GRADUALLY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH SAT...LEAVING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WILL SHIFT S AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING FRONT...INCREASING THE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS OFF THE VENEZUELAN COAST FROM LATE SUN TO EARLY TUE. FOR TROP N ATLC...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA MON...AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS S. THIS WILL INCREASE NE WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF THE COAST INTO ATLC WATERS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY 20 KT W FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES E IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING OUT TO THE N...AND WILL GRADUALLY STALL N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACCORDINGLY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS EVIDENT FOR THE WEEKEND SCENARIO AMONG GFS...ECMWF...NAM...AND NOGAPS. MODELS DEPICT WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA...INCREASING THE GRADIENT AND SLY WINDS E OF THE TROUGH BORDERING A RIDGE FURTHER E. THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE TO WATCH IS THE REINFORCING FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS DRAMATICALLY. GFS SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE NWLY WINDS BY THE END OF THE RUN ON TUE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GOING THIS HIGH IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL INTRODUCE 25 TO 30 KT FLOW FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR WATERS N OF BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN