000 AGXX40 KNHC 160803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF EARLY THIS MORNING CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA SW THROUGH 25N89W TO BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 19N95W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY LAST NIGHT INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS IN NW FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NW AND SW GULF. LATEST TREND IN WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE AS SEEN IN THESE OBSERVATIONS IS FOR SLOW DECREASE TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT AND TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE EXTREME W GULF LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD E ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELLS UP TO 16 FT ARE LINGERING OVER THE MIDDLE AND SW GULF WITH SWELLS UP TO 11 FT REMAINING OVER REST OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL THEN BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES FROM THE NW SUN AND MON RESULTING IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF NW CAA ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ALL ZONES THROUGH SUN...THEN QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION MON UNDER THE SHOT OF REINFORCING NLY FLOW. SW N ATLC... WEAK RIDGE FROM 31N66W SW TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AND THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN INCREASED SLY FLOW OVER THE NW PART WHERE WINDS ARE ALREADY SUSTAINED 25 KT N OF 26N W OF ABOUT 77W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2340 UTC REVEALED A SWATH OF 20-25 KT SLY WINDS OVER THIS SAME AREA. EXPECT THIS WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 10 FT...THEN QUICKLY SUBSIDE FRI. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT STILL APPEAR THAT THEY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY N OF THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF W-NW 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING REACHING A PSN FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN FROM 31N70W TO E CUBA BY SAT NIGHT. ON SUN WEAKENING FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO NEAR 25N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO E CUBA. FRONTAL TROUGH LINGERS NEAR SAME AREA MON. STEADY CAA MAINTAINS NW-N 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN...THEN DIMINISHES TO 10 KT OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC MON. IN CONTRAST LIGHT E-SE WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT BEFORE BECOMING S-SW N OF 23N AND SE-S AT SPEEDS OF 5-1O KT SUN AND GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT MON. SECONDARY SHOT OF CAA INCREASES NW WINDS TO 15-20 KT MON OVER FAR NW CORNER. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES...AND ARE GENERALLY EXPECT TO PERSIST INTO MON EXCEPT OVER E PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TRADES MAY INCREASE SOME. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHES ACROSS THE E GULF WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME N ABOUT 15 KT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO A PSN FROM FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT AFTERNOON...AND LATE ON SUN INTO MON FRONT BECOMES MORE TROUGH LIKE AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA AND SW TO NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. AS STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE E GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO 20 KT...WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS MAY BE SEEN S OF 19N ON MON. SEAS HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE. WINDS E OF FRONT TO NEAR 75W ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING MOST OF MON. NWP MODELS STILL HANG ON TO LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH MON WITH CANADIAN AS USUAL SHOWING A MORE AGGRESSIVE LOW MOVING WNW. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS FEATURE IN THE OUTLOOK FOR NOW SINCE I RATHER WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THERE IS CONSISTENCY IN THE WITH THE DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE