000 AGXX40 KNHC 151821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A VERY WELL DEVELOPED COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE AND SW GULF SHOW 25 TO 30 KT SLY FLOW. OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS ARE REACHING JUST BELOW GALE FORCE. THE STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE GULF AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS GULF WATERS. EXPECT RESIDUAL LARGE SWELL INTO FRI OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EASTERN GULF...THEN SUBSIDE INTO SAT. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS IS SHOWING NLY WINDS INCREASE LATE SUN THROUGH MON OVER THE NE GULF AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SHIP...BUOY AND QUIKSCAT DATA CONFIRM GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EMERGE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THU MORNING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE THU. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE N. OTHERWISE...VERY WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED NEAR 60W AND 77W. THE WESTERN TROPICAL WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY ALONG PANAMA AND COLOMBIAN COASTS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE TROP N ATLC WATERS NEAR 48W. BUOY 41041 AND A NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATION SHOW UP TO 20 KT WINDS EVIDENT TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING FURTHER NE OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC... SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO WATERS N OF BAHAMAS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SHIFT E IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF SE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND FRONT AND WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH THU N OF 28N W OF 76W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS OUT BY FRI...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE E OF THE AREA WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH SAT. SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE E AND HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N W OF 76W. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING W OF 90W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-90W... GMZ080...GMZ082...AND GMZ084. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN