000 AGXX40 KNHC 150728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST WED NOV 15 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SLY WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AS BEING INDICATED IN BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WIND SPEEDS ARE RANGING FROM 20-25 KT N OF 24N W OF 88W TO 15-20 KT N OF 24N E OF 88W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 00 UTC LAST NIGHT ALSO REVEALED INCREASING SLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF N OF ABOUT 24N. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT DOES HAVE STRONG PUSH OF HIGH PRES BEHIND IT...AND AS A RESULT A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SW GULF FOR PART OF THIS EVENING AS ALL NWP MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO A LINE FROM FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH 25N90W TO 19N95W BY EARLY TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT CONVINCINGLY PORTRAYED BY LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS...I AM PLANNING ON LEAVING GALE WARNING IN SLY FLOW E OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY DUE TO VERY STRONG SLY WIND FIELD INDICATED BY VERY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE (925-SFC) IN THE GFS GUIDANCE. WILL NARROW THIS AREA OF GALE WINDS TO A SMALLER FURTHER N TO THE E OF FRONT THAN WHAT HAD BEEN DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE REALIZED TODAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART OF EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA THU MORNING AND EXIT THE GULF LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EARLY THU EVENING WITH NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF DURING THU AFTERNOON...EXCEPT TO 20-25 KT WINDS LINGERING OVER PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS THEN DROP OFF TO NW 10-15 KT THU NIGHT AND NW 10 KT OR LESS EXTREME W GULF LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN ACROSS THE FRI THROUGH SUN. AS HIGH PRES THEN SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH SUN...WINDS WILL BE N-NE 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF S OF 26N AND NE-E 10-15 KT OVER THE SW GULF BECOMING E-SE 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE NW GULF. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN ALL ZONES WITH HIGHEST SEAS MAXING UP TO 6 FT AS INDICATED BY 00 UTC NWW3 GUIDANCE OVER THE S PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AND SUN. SW N ATLC... WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT SLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NW PART TONIGHT AND THU TO THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST AROUND EARLY THU MORNING. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT STILL APPEAR THAT THEY WILL LIFT RAPIDLY N OF THE AREA THU WITH ONLY A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF NW W-NW 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT REACHES A LINE FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W BY THU EVENING. FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING REACHING A PSN FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN FROM 31N70W TO E CUBA BY SAT NIGHT. ON SUN WEAKENING FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO NEAR 24N72W WHERE IT BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SE BAHAMAS. STEADY CAA MAINTAINS NW-N 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC SUN. IN CONTRAST LIGHT E-SE WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SW N OF 23N ON SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... RATHER LIGHT E TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GULF OF MEXICO COLD IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO A PSN FROM FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT AFTERNOON...AND LATE ON SUN FRONT ACHIEVES MORE OF TROUGH LIKE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR JAMAICA AND SW TO NEAR THE BORDER OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. NWP MODELS HINT AT POSSIBLE LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH SUN...BUT WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY IN THE DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE BEFORE INTRODUCING IT IN THE OUTLOOK. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING W OF 90W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-90W... GMZ080...GMZ082...AND GMZ084. FORECASTER AGUIRRE