000
AGXX40 KNHC 141839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
138 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN ISSUE THIS FCST PACKAGE IS THE POSTING OF GALE WARNINGS 
FOR AREAS IN THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH 
IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON WED AND 
EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE-25N90W-19N95W BY WED EVENING. MOST 
OF THE NWP MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF AGREE 
ON GALES FOR THE W GULF NW OF THE FRONT FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
ALSO PLANNING ON PUTTING GALES UP OVER THE NRN GULF FOR WED E OF 
THE FRONT GIVEN GFS/NAM DEPICTION OF 55-60 KT 925 MB/LLJ AND 
ALSO IN COORDINATION WITH WFO MOB. THX ALSO GOES TO WFO 
CRP AND LIX FOR COORDINATION AS WELL. GALES SHOULD BE SHORT 
LIVED AS DYNAMICS LIFT RAPIDLY OUT TO THE N LATER WED NIGHT INTO 
THU WITH COLD FRONT JUST EXITING THE GULF BY THU EVENING AS 
WINDS NW OF THE FRONT DROP OFF TO 15-20 KT BY THEN. 
HIGH PRES SETTLES IN FRI THROUGH SUN WITH NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT 
OVER MOST OF THE GULF...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE FAR ERN 
GULF SAT INTO SUN DUE TO REINFORCING CAA.  

SW N ATLC...
WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC GIVES WAY TO INCREASING SLY 
WINDS LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. CURRENT FCST IS FOR WINDS TO 
REACH 25-30 KT WED NIGHT FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA JUST BEFORE 
A COLD FRONT EXITS THE FL COAST AROUND SUNRISE THU. DYNAMICS 
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT LIFT RAPIDLY N OF THE AREA THU WITH ONLY A 
SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF NW WINDS OF 20+ KT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY 
THU EVENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W. STRONG RIDGE 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND MERIDIONAL FLOW ONLY ALLOWS FRONT TO
CREEP EWD TO ALONG 31N74W 24N80W BY LATE FRI...31N71W TO 23N798W 
BY LATE SAT. BY SUN FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EWD AND EXTENDS FROM 
29N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. STEADY CAA MAINTAINS NW-N WINDS OF 15 
KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN CONTRAST LIGHT E-SE 
WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT BEFORE TURNING TO THE 
SW ON SUN. 
   
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
RATHER LIGHT E TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL 
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI THROUGH SUN. NWP MODELS 
HAVE BACKED OFF ON LOW IN SW CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH SUN PERIOD
AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE OUTLOOK.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GALE...NW AND CENTRAL GULF WED...GMZ080/GMZ084. 
    ...SW GULF WED AND WED NIGHT...GMZ082.  

FORECASTER COBB