000 AGXX40 KNHC 131822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 121 PM MON NOV 13 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL STRAITS THROUGH 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS DISSIPATING IN THE FACE OF LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL WEAK FLOW. THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACTIVATE AND MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT TUE AND COMBINED WITH FALLING SFC PRESSURES OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SLY WINDS LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY SWEEPS EWD AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED. GFS AND NEWER HIGH RES CMC MODELS ARE THE MOST ROBUST AND USHER IN GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE W GULF. IN ADDITION GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW INDICATING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF GALES...70 PCT 18 UTC WED THROUGH 00 UTC THU AS WELL. THIS LENDS GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR GALES WED/WED NIGHT W OF THE FRONT. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHERN GULF E OF THE FRONT WHERE THE GFS IS DEPICTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF 40 KT SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A LLJ OF 55-60 KT. THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN GALES IS TOO GREAT AND THUS WILL ALSO HEADLINE GALES EXPECTED E OF THE FRONT WED AS WELL OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THX WFO CRP...LIX AND MOB FOR COORDINATION. FRONT CONTINUES EWD AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED AND E OF THE GULF BY LATE THU. WINDS DROP BELOW GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MOST AREAS AS LOW LIFTS NWD. WINDS DECREASE TO 20-25 KT MOST AREAS THU AND TO 10-15 KT FRI AS HIGH PRESS SETTLES IN. AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER THE ERN GULF FRESHENS NLY WINDS TO 15-20 KT SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FRONT DISSIPATES TUE IN A FIELD OF LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRES. SLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE NW PORTIONS LATE WED AND WED NIGHT WITH 25-30 KT WED NIGHT OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THU AND EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE THU. MOST OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN STRONG SLY FLOW WITH 15-20+ KT NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS MAIN ENERGY/LOW CTR LIFTS NWD. STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW ONLY ALLOWS FRONT TO INCH EWD TO ALONG 31N74W TO 23N80W BY LATE FRI AND FROM 31N71W TO 22N79W BY LATE SAT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS MAINTAINS NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER AREAS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE SAT. IN CONTRAST LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... RATHER LIGHT E TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC INTO WED NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 67W/68W MOVES WWD 10-12 KT. IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THU AND STALLS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM/NOGAPS AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE CMC DEPICTS SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW. THE NAM/WRF IS EXHIBITING ITS USUAL HYPER-DEVELOPMENT OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS AND CRANKS OUT A FULL FLEDGED TRPCL CYCLONE AND IS DISCOUNTED. WILL OPT FOR A MILDER FORM OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND INDICATE A BROAD LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE THU THROUGH SAT WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE LOW. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED...NW GULF/GMZ080...CENTRAL GULF/GMZ084. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND WED NIGHT...SW GULF/GMZ082. FORECASTER COBB