000 AGXX40 KNHC 121821 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM SUN NOV 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT MYERS AND BECOMING STATIONARY THROUGH 24N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA WWD ALONG 25N/26N TO THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE MON AND LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT W OF 90W BY LATE TUE AND N OF THE AREA W OF 90W TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING S TO SW WINDS. OUTLOOK...BIG CHANGES IN STORE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WED AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N97W. THIS FRONT USHERS IN STRONG NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND THE GFS 30-M ARE ONLY MARGINALLY 35 KT FOR A SHORT PERIOD LATE WED. THUS WILL NOT MENTION POSSIBLE GALES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MENTION WORDING OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATE WED/THU FOR W GULF. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE GULF BY MID-DAY THU WITH NW-N WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING. BY FRI...HIGH PRESS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF AND ALLOWS WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE FURTHER WITH SOME HINTS OF RETURN SE FLOW OVER AREAS W OF 95W. SW N ATLC... DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES IN DRAGGING A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST JUST S OF CAPE CANAVERAL. BUOYS NW OF THE FRONT REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS...EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON. FRONT DISSIPATES TUE IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. OUTLOOK...SLY WINDS INCREASE LATE WED/WED NIGHT OVER THE NW PORTION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLATED TO MOVE RAPIDLY OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THU AND EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO 25N80W LATE THU AND FROM 31N70W TO E-CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE FRI. SLY WINDS PICK UP TO 25-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF NWLY 20-25 KT WINDS ENSUES THU BEHIND THE FRONT. BY FRI...ENERGY LIFTS N OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING MARKEDLY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MODERATE ELY TRADES OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC BY TUE/TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY FRI AND FROM E CUBA TO 15N86W LATE FRI. GFS AS WELL AS THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND NAM HINT AT A DEVELOPING LOW OF TROPICAL ORIGIN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE THU OR FRI. FOR NOW WILL NOT BUY INTO THIS FCST AND WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION OF THIS FEATURE IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OF ALL THE MODELS BEFORE LATCHING UNTO THIS RATHER EXTREME SOLUTION FOR MID NOVEMBER. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB