000 AGXX40 KNHC 120608 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SUN NOV 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A LARGE DUAL CENTERED MID LEVEL LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ALONG 30N. A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT MOVING RAPIDLY EWD WITH A SUBTROPIC JET MOVING NE ALONG THE N GULF COAST. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 59W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF FROM 30N85W TO 20N95W WITH N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND IT. A 1022 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N68W MOVING SLOWLY EWD. LATER DAY 1 ONE OF THE DUAL CENTERS MOVES S TO NEAR 30N50W. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF ALONG THE CAR/VA COAST AND RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 90W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A WEAK LOW 1010 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 29N51W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN GULF MOVES E OF FL INTO THE NW BAHAMAS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. GULF WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. FOR DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DUAL CENTERS OVER THE ATLC WHILE THE CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA WITH SOME WEAK LOWERING OF MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 70W. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES STRONG ZONAL WITH A SECOND TROUGH MOVING TO THE MS VALLEY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE WEAK ATLC LOW REMAINS STATIONARY AND WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY EWD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. CARIB WINDS DECREASE WITH A WEAK GRADIENT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE DUAL CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC OPEN UP AND MOVE EWD WHILE A LARGE MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 70W REMAINS STRONG ZONAL WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING NE BUT HEIGHTS CONTINUE A SLOW FALL W OF 80W AS A NEW SYSTEM ENTERS THE NRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 SOME RETURN FLOW BEGINS W OF 90W AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC DISSIPATES WITH WINDS LIGHT N OF 20N E OF 90W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. GFS SHOWS A CIRCULATION NEAR 12N45W WHICH APPEARS TO DEVELOP FROM THE ITCZ. FOR DAY 4 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES SIMPLE WITH LARGE TROUGHS DOMINATING THE ERN ATLC AND A NEW TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY. IN BETWEEN A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE COVERS THE N CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SE OFF THE TX COAST WITH WINDS TO 30 KT. THE GFS BACKS OFF OF THE GALES OF LAST NIGHTS RUN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL COVER THE ERN GULF. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT ATLC WINDS W OF 75W BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 KT. A WEAK LOW NEAR 13N47W MOVING WNW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ACCORDING TO GFS. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 70W N OF 20N. THE BLOCKING RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 55W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT MOVES E OF FL WITH SLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT E OF THE FRONT TO 70W. THE STRONG TROUGH DOES NOT BRING MUCH COLD AIR SWD CONSEQUENTLY THE AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE GULF IS RELATIVELY WEAK 1020 MB. WINDS OVER THE GULF WEAKEN TO 20 TO 25 KT E OF 95W AND WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE NW CARIB BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC..THE SURFACE RIDGE ALSO STRENGTHENS E OF 70W AND TRADES INCREASE N OF 15N E OF 50W. THE GFS MODEL STILLS SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR 14N49W BUT NOT DOING MUCH. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH SOME SORT OF LOW FORMING OVER THE SW AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG