000 AGXX40 KNHC 110611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SAT NOV 11 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. LARGE AMPLITUDE FEATURES COMPRISE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. A CLOSED OFF LOW WAS OVER THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N30W. A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLC ALONG 57W EXTENDING SSW TO 22N62W. A VORTICITY CENTER WAS EXITING THE AREA NEAR 33N55W. A LARGE SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE CENTRAL US ALONG 95W MOVING ESE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 57W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30N55W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 30N75W. A SECOND COLD FRONT WAS OVER ERN TX. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N52W. THE ERN ATLC CLOSED LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US MOVES TO THE TN VALLEY LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN GULF. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT MOVES TO 31N53W 24N60W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE USUAL S CENTRAL PORTION. REMAINDER OF THE REGION MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 2 THE TWO ATLC CLOSED LOWS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER BY ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON POINT. THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW MOVES S TO NEAR 30N50W WHILE THE ERN ATLC LOW MOVES TO NEAR 34N30W. THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE TN VALLEY CLOSES OFF NEAR 35N75W WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS N ALONG 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE GULF COLD FRONT RACES E OFF THE FL COAST TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WINDS DECREASE TO MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION WITH 10 TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE MID ATLC UNDER THE UPPER LOW WITH A 1010 MB CENTER NEAR 29N50W AND WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC SEABOARD HEADING NE. THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLC DRIFTS S TO NEAR 28N47W WHILE THE ERN ATLC LOW REMAINS STATIONARY. STRONG ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW RESUMES OVER THE NRN GULF AND CENTRAL US. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE COLD FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNDER A WEAK GRADIENT. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE MID ATLC LOW REMAINS WEAK AT 1010 MB NEAR 29N48W. FOR DAY 4 THE CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC OPEN UP TO A BROAD TROUGH ALONG 32N26W TO 29N55W. THE STRONG CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID ATLC MOVES RAPIDLY NE AND A STRONG WLY MID FLOW SETS IN OVER THE GULF W OF 80W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 SLY WINDS INCREASE W OF 93W AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 THE ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS W OF 80W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY SE OFF THE TX COAST WITH THE GFS SHOWING WINDS TO GALE FORCE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST. SOMETIMES THE GFS STARTS OFF STRONG THEN BACKS OFF ON SUCEEDING RUNS..SO IT'S A LITTLE EARLY TO SOUND THE ALARM FOR GALES IN THE WRN GULF. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE SW ATLC WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG