000 AGXX40 KNHC 090703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM THU NOV 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E TODAY...ALLOWING FOR STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TODAY...WITH UP 20 KT EXPECTED. SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WRN GULF THIS MORNING ARE ALREADY INDICATING 15 KT SE FLOW. THE HIGH WILL EXIT INTO THE ATLC WATERS FRI...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW GULF STARTING SAT...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NW WINDS. HOWEVER...UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT LIFT OUT TO THE N ON SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF AGAIN...FORCING THE FRONT NWD AS A WARM FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT AS WELL FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY STALL AND DISSIPATE IN THIS AREA THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO SE OF THE TROUGH NEAR NICARAGUA. ITCZ IS EVIDENT S OF THIS AXIS ALONG PANAMA COAST. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS W OF 70W SHOW MODERATE E FLOW N OF PANAMA BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE AXIS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ELY FLOW ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH ELY WINDS...ON PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL ATLC. ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E INTO THE ATLC. WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING FROM 32N73W THROUGH THE NRN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG W WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING FROM TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE ERN SEABOARD. SWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLY UP TO GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT MOVES E AND THE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER THE GULF SHIFTS E TO N OF THE BAHAMAS. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF 29 BY LATE SUN...BUT QUICKLY STALL THEN MOVE N AGAIN AS HIGH PRES BUILD OVER CENTRAL ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 70W CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN