000 AGXX40 KNHC 070652 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST TUE NOV 07 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE TO THE E OF 65W... BUT LIE QUASI-STATIONARY W OF 65W GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE BY WED. SLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 70W TODAY WITH A WEAK BUT CONVECTIVE WARM FRONT MOVING OFF THE FL E COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE N FL AND SE GA LATE TONIGHT. BY SUNSET WED THE COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FL...SUNRISE THU FROM 31N70W TO N CENTRAL CUBA...AND AROUND SUNRISE FRI EXTEND FROM 31N62W TO NE CUBA. A SECOND... REINFORCING...SHORTWAVE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWS AND WILL CAUSE WINDS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT TO HAVE A MORE W COMPONENT THAN NW. E OF FRONT SLY WINDS MAY REACH 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO GALE...SEAS TO 14 FT ALONG 31N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH STILL APPARENT FROM HISPANIOLA TO SW CUBA...BEGINNING TO LIFT TO THE NE. 00Z SHIPS AND SSMI PASS INDICATING E 20-25 KT N OF BOUNDARY. SSMI AND LATE AFTERNOON Q-SCAT WINDS SHOW A SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ELY 20 KT ALONG COAST COLOMBIA THROUGH PERIOD. BY EARLY TONIGHT NLY SWELLS ARRIVE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF 17N WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN AS ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS S IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE PULSES BEGINNING OVER SW ATLC WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TONIGHT BUT LOSE IT PUSH AND STALL OVER NW CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI AND DIFFUSE SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND NNW-SSE ACROSS E WATERS WITH FRONTAL WAVE LOW NEAR 28N90W ALL MOVING ENE. A NEW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TX COAST AND WILL RACE SE OF AREA LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE SOME REMNANTS OVER SRN GULF WATERS THROUGH WED. LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SE TO S AT 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT OVER CENTRAL WATERS. MODELS SUGGESTING NW WINDS ONLY TO 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND COLD FRONT TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRES SETS UP OVER CENTRAL GULF BEHIND FRONT WITH SLY RETURN FLOW NW WATERS BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND ALL WATERS BY LATE FRI WITH NEXT FRONT SUNRISE SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON