000 AGXX40 KNHC 060640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST MON NOV 6 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A BROADENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE N OF 25N BUT LIE QUASI-STATIONARY S OF 25N GRADUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE BY WED. BY THEN...SLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP W OF 65W WITH A WARM FRONT...LIKELY CONVECTIVE...MOVING N OVER FL AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE N FL AND SE GA LATE WED...BY SUNRISE THU THE COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FL...AND AROUND SUNRISE FRI EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO NE CUBA. THE TRICKY PART IS THE PARENT LOW PRES MAY SKIM THE NRN WATERS EARLY THU BEFORE RACING OFF TO THE NE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWS WITH NEW LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT AND RACING ESE AND PASSING JUST TO N OF BERMUDA THU NIGHT...WHILE TRAILING A SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA THU AND FRI. THE NWW3 SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED ON CURRENT SEAS HEIGHTS FROM MODEL RUNS SEVERAL DAYS AGO...SHIPS REPORTING 15 AND 16 FT NEAR 27N67W WHILE GUIDANCE 9-10 FT RANGE...SO WILL BUMP UP IN NEXT PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH APPARENT FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. 00Z SHIPS STILL REPORTING 20-30 KT N OF BOUNDARY. SSMI AND AFTERNOON Q-SCAT WINDS SHOW A SWATH OF NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES OVER SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL PORTION TROPICAL ATLC ZONE. GFS CONTINUES WITH 20 KT ALONG COAST COLOMBIA BUT WEAKENS GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE TUE. TUE NIGHT NLY SWELLS ARRIVE N OF 18N WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE PULSES BEGINNING OVER SW ATLC WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED BUT LOSES IT PUSH AND STALLS NW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. GULF OF MEXICO... CONVECTIVE REMNANTS OF FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E ACROSS EASTERN PORTION TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS NW WATERS AROUND SUNSET TODAY...RACING SE OF AREA WED NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY LEAVE SOME REMNANTS OVER SW WATERS THU INTO FRI. LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS HAVE VEERED TO E AT 20-25 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 12 FT CENTRAL WATERS. MODELS SUGGESTING NW WINDS ONLY TO 20 KT BEHIND COLD FRONT TUE AND WED...MOVE FRONT ACROSS GULF RAPIDLY...SO EXPECT WINDS MAY BE UNDER DONE. HIGH PRES SETS UP OVER CENTRAL GULF BEHIND FRONT WITH SLY RETURN FLOW NW WATERS FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON