000
AGXX40 KNHC 300700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 AM EST MON OCT 30 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 25N55W HAS RIDGE ACROSS SE 
CORNER OF SW N ATLC...GREATER ANTILLES INTO GULF OF HONDURAS.  
RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND BE FORCED SE BY STRONG BUT WEAKENING UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS SW N ATLC THROUGH NRN BAHAMAS 
TO YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.  VERY DRY AIR MASS 
ALONG AND WITHIN 240 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
SWATH MOVING NE TRAPPED BETWEEN SECONDARY RIDGE CENTER OVER 
HISPANIOLA AND UPPER THROUGH ACROSS NW CUBA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS SE BAHAMAS...SE CUBA... 
JAMAICA AND NW CARIBBEAN.  SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS WILL 
PUT SQUEEZE ON GRADIENT AT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NE WIND 
BLOWING OVER SW N ATLC N OF 25N AND AGAINST GULF STREAM FLOW... 
ENHANCING SEA HEIGHTS W OF 75W. 

HEALTHY TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTRIBUTING TO 
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY ADDING LIFTING MECHANISM TO 
ALREADY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  WHILE UPPER CONDITIONS ARE 
CONSIDERED ADVERSE TO DEVELOPMENT THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION 
MERITS MONITORING OF AREA.  

GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TAME AND TRANQUIL TODAY THROUGH WED UNDER 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 28N/29N.  GFS MIGHT HAVE JUMPED 
THE GUN BY CALLING FOR STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW LATER TODAY. 
IT APPEARS MODERATE NE TO E SHOULD CONTINUE THRU OUT WEEK.  

WARNINGS...
ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES