000
AGXX40 KNHC 241545
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1200 PM TUE OCT 24 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER SW WATERS EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS ELY WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SLY IN ADVANCE OF 
NEXT SHORTWAVE. NE OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH WINDS ARE NE-E 20-25 
KT SEAS TO 12 FT CONFIRMED BY A SHIP AND A BUOY. PARENT HIGH 
PRES OVER NE TX ATTM STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT E ALONG 34N AND 
OFF SC COAST SUNRISE THU. AS HIGH SHIFTS E THE SLY RETURN FLOW 
BEGINS OVER NW WATERS TONIGHT SPREADING OVER ALL WATERS BY 
MIDDAY THU. NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TX COAST AT 06Z FRI...12 
HOURS LATER THAT YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. EXPECT NLY 20-30 
KT AGAIN BEHIND THIS SECOND BOUNDARY WITH GFS HINTING AT MINIMUM 
GALE W CENTRAL WATERS MIDDAY FRI. WITH CONSTANT CHANGE IN 
FRONTAL TIMING WILL HOLD OFF ON BUMPING UP WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
FOR NOW TIL SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.     

ATLC...STILL SEE THE PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM 22N63W TO 28N64W BUT 
COLD FRONT APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM NW. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE 
EXTENDING FROM 26N55W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE MIDDAY WED THEN SLOW 
AND DRIFT E ACROSS THE SE PORTION THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. PST 
FRONTAL RIDGING WILL BE REPLACED BY PARENT HIGH PRES CENTER  
MOVING E OFF SC 12Z THU REACHING NEAR BERMUDA 12Z FRI WITH SW 
FLOW INCREASING AGAIN NW WATERS. CONVECTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
57W WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 34W 
WILL MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE FRI NIGHT WITH NWW3 
SHOWING E SWELLS TO 11 FT...LESS THAN YESTERDAYS 13 FT MAX. 

CARIBBEAN...REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER GULF OF HONDURAS 
WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W FLARING 
CONVECTION SW WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY 15 KT WIND SHIFT.
A TROPICAL WAVE IN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WILL ENTER E CARIBBEAN 
AROUND SUNRISE WED AND REACH NEAR 83W SUNRISE SUN. OVER THE NW 
WATERS...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWING ITS SE PROGRESSION ATTM AND 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NW WATERS FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF 
HONDURAS THROUGH EARLY THU. NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS 
AFTERNOON TO 20-25 KT NW OF BOUNDARY WITH SWELLS TO 11 FT MOVING 
S INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL. GRADIENT INCREASING A LITTLE ALONG S 
AMERICAN COAST EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME SAT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN 
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT NW WATERS MIDDAY SAT 
WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KT BRIEFLY SAT AFTERNOON.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON