000
AGXX40 KNHC 231638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1200 PM MON OCT 23 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL WATERS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE SE OF AREA TONIGHT BUT MAY TRAIL A WEAKENING PORTION OVER 
THE SW WATERS THROUGH WED. POST FRONTAL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT 
20-30 KT SEAS TO 13 FT W CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE. PARENT 
HIGH PRES SHIFTS E ALONG 34N AND OFF SC COAST SUNRISE THU. AS 
HIGH SHIFTS E THE SLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS OVER NW WATERS TUE 
NIGHT SPREADING OVER ALL WATERS BY MIDDAY THU. NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF TX COAST AT 15Z THU...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAT 06Z GFS 
RUN. EXPECT NLY 20-25 KT BEHIND SECOND BOUNDARY...LIKELY TO 
FLUCTUATE IN UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.    

ATLC...BROAD AND PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM 28N63W TO SE BAHAMAS 
WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT SHIFTS E OF 65W TONIGHT AND E OF 55W 
WED. COLD FRONT OVER NW WATERS WILL REACH PSN 31N74W 22N80W 
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA ACROSS SE BAHAMAS TO WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TUE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SE PORTION DISCUSSION AREA 
WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINAS 
12Z THU REACHING NEAR BERMUDA 12Z FRI WITH SW FLOW INCREASING 
AGAIN NW WATERS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE THROUGH 
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE TONIGHT AND TUE. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 29W WILL 
MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE FRI NIGHT WITH NWW3 SHOWING E 
SWELLS TO 13 FT. 

CARIBBEAN...REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER GULF OF HONDURAS 
WILL WASH OUT BY TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE REINTRODUCED OVER THE 
CENTRAL WATERS NOW FLARING CONVECTION BUT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY 
10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLC WILL ENTER E PART SUNRISE WED 
AND REACH NEAR 77W SUNRISE SAT. OVER THE NW WATERS...A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN DRIFT 
SE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NW WATERS FROM E CUBA TO GULF OF 
HONDURAS THROUGH WED. NLY FLOW INCREASE TO 20-25 KT NW FRONT 
WITH LARGE SWELLS MOVING S INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNRISE 
TUE REACHING NEAR BELIZE TUE NIGHT. GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE 
ALONG S AMERICAN COAST AFTER TUE AND WEAKENS SOME SAT. LIGHT 
WINDS NW WATERS THU SHIFTING TO N FRI BEHIND NEXT FRONT.  

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON