000 AGXX40 KNHC 211940 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM SAT OCT 21 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA W TO 28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT THROUGH 28N92W NW TO INLAND THE TEXAS COAST NEAR HOUSTON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TO INLAND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT. BOTH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS E OF 90W AND SE-S 10-15 KT WINDS W OF 90W. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 12 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION. THE FIRST MAJOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SUN MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG NE WINDS MOST LIKELY IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TX SUN AFTERNOON...AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO 25N94W THE S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF MON NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. WILL MAINTAIN NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH TUE. WINDS DECEASE WED AND THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ENE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME SLY IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF AND E-SE 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE SW GULF. SW N ATLC... WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N77W SW INLAND E CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N75W TO E FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT N OF AREA AS A WARM FRONT SUN. RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W SW TO S FLORIDA WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON...FROM 30N65W TO E CUBA TUE AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE PART WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THOUGH THU. MODEL WIND GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NW- WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT MON AND TUE...AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NE PART AND TO N-NE D 10-15 KT OVER THE W PART WED AND E-SE 10 KT THU EXCEPT BECOMING NE-E 10-15 KT S OF 25N. LARGE 8-10 FT SEAS MON THROUGH WED OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE WILL SUBSIDE THU EXCEPT PERSIST OVER E PART THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROAD LOW PRES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WWD THROUGH SUN NIGH BECOMING DIFFUSE MON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LIGHT AND SEAS LOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THU...AND OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE NE-E 15-20 KT TUE AND WED DECREASING TO 10-15 KT THU. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELLS NW PART NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT TUE SUBSIDING WED AND THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE