000 AGXX40 KNHC 210514 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SAT OCT 21 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT THE OLD WEAKNESS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W HAS FINALLY CLOSED OFF AND ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS LOCATED NEAR 17N76W AND NEARLY STATIONARY. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE GULF AS WELL AS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG WESTERLIES ARE JUST N OF 30N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE LOCATED ALONG 43W AND 55W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK LOW 1007 MB THAT HAS BEEN ON THE CHART FOR THE PAST 10 DAYS AT LEAST HAS DRIFTED WWD TO NEAR 19N70W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR JAX SW TO 26N90W TO A WEAK LOW 1007 MB NEAR 26N96W. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE NW GULF AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIB AND GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE ATLC RIDGE IS WEAK WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N52W THUS TRADES ARE MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE WAVE AT 45W. FOR DAY 2 MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES EWD THUS HEIGHTS ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY ALONG THE N GULF COAST. THE MID TROUGH OVER THE CARIB DRIFTS WWD TO 80W WITH A FLAT RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE WITH A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF WITH GUSTY N WINDS TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE THE PRESSURE FIELD REMAINS WEAK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS RAPIDLY SE INTO THE TN VALLEY LOWERING HEIGHTS W OF 70W. THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE REGION AT MID LEVELS BEGINS TO BULGE NWD OVER MID OCEAN WHILE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A 1025 MB POLAR HIGH DROPS SE TO ERN TX MAINTAINING GUSTY N AND NE WINDS TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE FL COAST. WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OUT OF AN OLD TROUGH NEAR 26N60W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE E SIDE. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC. FOR DAY 4 THE TN VALLEY SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY EWD OFF THE MID ATLC COAST LOWERING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE MID ATLC RIDGE MOVES EWD TO 45W WHILE A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC MOVES S ALONG 25W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ALONG 90W WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY W TO NW OVER THE CENTRAL US. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE POLAR HIGH MAINTAINS ITSELF AT 1024 MB MOVING SLOWLY EWD. WINDS REMAIN A PROBLEM N OF 20N AND W OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES TO THE SE BAHAMAS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 25N. REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 A LARGE DEEP CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES ITSELF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES KEEPING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING SLOWLY E OF 80W. A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO WORK IT'S WAY EWD TO 50W SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SRN GULF AND CUBA AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALONG 36W. ON THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD TO A LINE FROM 31N52W TO 20N70W. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME BETWEEN 70W AND 90W AS THE POLAR HIGH MOVES TO CENTRAL GA. RETURN SLY WINDS W OF 90W INCREASE AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC ABOUT THE SAME S OF A WEAK RIDGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG