000 AGXX40 KNHC 190518 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM THU OCT 19 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL RIDGES DOMINATE THE GULF REGION AND ERN ATLC TONIGHT. IN BETWEEN A WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W WHERE WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM THE WESTERLIES CONTINUE TO DROP IN AND STIR UP SOME ACTIVITY. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE ALONG 33W AND 44W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A PERSISTENT WEAK LOW 1007 MB WAS JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE SE NEAR THE ATLC COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER SE TX. LATER DAY 1 A SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WILL MOVE TO THE MO VALLEY AND BEGIN TO RIDGE OVER THE STRONG GULF RIDGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS WILL PERSIST BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. ON THE SURFACE THE TX COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF WITH N WINDS TO 20 KT. MOST OTHER AREAS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 2 A STRONG MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST N OF 30N WITH NO INTRUSION OF COLD AIR HEADING S. THE SHORTWAVE OVER MO WILL MOVE TO THE NE COAST WITH NO AFFECT ON OUR REGION. THE GULF RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BUT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS S TO ALONG 15N WHILE THE WEAKNESS WORKS IT'S WAY W OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF MOVES TO THE NE GULF BUT HANGS BACK OVER THE NW PORTION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MOSTLY NE 15 TO 20 KT. THE WEAK LOW N OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTS WNW AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK WITH LIGHT TRADES. CARIB WINDS ALSO LIGHT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 LITTLE CHANGE WITH STRONG MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLIES N OF 30N AND FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGES OVER THE GULF AND TROPICAL ATLC. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE W CENTRAL CARIB NWD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE GULF FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE N PORTION WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRES N OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTS N TO NEAR 25N66W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL AS ATLC WINDS WITH AN ALMOST NOT EXISTENT ATLC RIDGE. DAY 4 FINDS SOME COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINNING TO DROP IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN 30N AND 35N REMAINS MOSTLY STRONG ZONAL. MID LEVEL RIDGES OVER THE GULF AND TROPICAL ATLC WEAKEN DAY 4 WITH WEAK TROUGHS NOTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER THE ATLC ALONG 50W. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS WELL DO ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC. THE WEAK LOW DRIFTS TO NEAR 26N64W. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 A LARGE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE NWLY OVER THE N GULF. WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGES HOLD ON OVER THE GULF..CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF MOVES TO THE NE PORTION AND EXTENDS BACK TO THE SW AREA. A LITTLE STRONGER HIGH FOLLOWS THIS FRONT WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT. ELY TRADES COME BACK TO LIFE OVER THE ERN CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. ELSEWHERE N OF 20N MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR N OF 27N W OF 75W WHERE SW WINDS TO 20 KT DEVELOP AS PRESSURES LOWER OFF THE SE COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG