000
AGXX40 KNHC 181742
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 PM WED OCT 18 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE MID/ UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 24N94W IN GULF OF 
MEXICO EFFECTIVELY DOMINATES ENTIRE GULF...SW N ATLC AND W OF 
70W IN CARIBBEAN.  MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS RESTRICTS CONVECTION 
EXCEPT AROUND RIDGE PERIPHERY.  DEEP LAYER LARGE AMPLITUDE 
TROUGH ALONG 60W WITH CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N60W PRODUCES 
MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND NE CARIBBEAN WITH 
SCATTERED CONVECTION ENHANCED BY SURFACE TROUGH FROM MONA 
PASSAGE TO 14N70W.  GFS AND NOGAPS MODEL STEER CUT OFF VORTEX NE 
WHILE UKMET MAKES IT DRIFT N-NW.  NOT MUCH CONCERN ABOUT UKMET 
SOLUTION DUE TO PRESENT ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT AND UNLIKELIHOOD OF 
WLY DRIFT.  

ELSEWHERE...SURFACE TROUGH OVER CARIBBEAN ALL BUT STOPPED 
EASTERLY TRADES OVER BASIN.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED 
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST AND OUTLOOK PERIODS OVER CARIBBEAN.  

GULF OF MEXICO RETURNING TO NORMAL AFTER RECENT ONSLAUGHT OF 
GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS NRN HALF OF BASIN.  SE-S WINDS RETURN 
WITH SURFACE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ATLC.  QUICK MOVING 
COLD FRONTS CROSS GULF ON THU AND SUN TEMPORARILY INCREASING 
NELY WINDS BUT SUBSIDING JUST AS FAST AS THEY MOVE ACROSS BASIN. 
WIND BARELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BRING SEAS ABOVE 8 FT BEFORE 
CALMING DOWN.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES