000
AGXX40 KNHC 170510
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
115 AM TUE OCT 17 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND A 
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE ATLANTIC AREA.  STRONG 
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.  SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND 
WEAKEN REACHING THE EAST U.S. COAST TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF 29N 
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AREA WEDNESDAY.  THE 
ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE WEST TO OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF THURSDAY 
AND THE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE SOMEWHAT WEST AND EXTEND OVER THE 
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN EAST OF 75W THURSDAY.  THIS PATTERN WILL 
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT THE MIDDLE LATITUDE 
WESTERLIES WILL MOVE SOUTH TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 
26N FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKEN SOME.  A 
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
EARLY THURSDAY.

SURFACE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COUPLED WITH A 
MODERATE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA PRODUCING GALE FORCE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH TUESDAY TO A LIGHT WIND PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE 
ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT TO BE LESS THAN GALE FORCE.  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST EARLY THURSDAY AND MOVE 
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF TROUGH FRIDAY.  NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 
WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OFF TEXAS COAST BUT WILL 
WEAKEN AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF.  OTHERWISE AND 
ELSEWHERE A LIGHT WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL.

PERSISTENT LOW JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY 
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AREA 
THROUGH FRIDAY.  DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AS IT IS MAINLY 
DEPENDANT ON CONVECTION.

GALE CONDITIONS IN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 18Z 
TODAY.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GALE GMZ084.

FORECASTER LL