000 AGXX40 KNHC 160504 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON OCT 16 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDING NWD IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT. WESTERLIES EXPLOITING THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W WITH SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE TO 25N60W. MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 45W TONIGHT WHILE DEEP VORTEX SPINS OVER AZORES. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT ALL THE ACTION IS OVER THE GULF WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER S TX AND THE POLAR HIGH OVER THE SE US ARE PRODUCING STRONG SE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 12 FT ACCORDING TO BUOY DATA. NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE ATLC W OF A STATIONARY FRONT ARE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE NW CARIB N OF 19N TONIGHT. ATLC RIDGE NEAR 32N38W WITH MODERATE ELY TRADES TO 20 KT E OF 50W. LATER DAY 1 SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE ELY TRACK E OF 70W AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO BUILD E OVER THE BAHAMAS. MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE SWLY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR GALE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE N GULF AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NNE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NE WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE ATLC RIDG WEAKENS SOME BUT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH NO CHANGE TO THE ELY TRADES. FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF RIDGE TO THE TN VALLEY. SHORTAVES STILL EXPLOITING THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W WHILE THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS ALONG 40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TH OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD AND THE NE WINDS BECOME MORE ELY AND SELY OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND ELY TRADES E OF 50W BECOME 10 TO 15 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD TO ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE SWLY. THE WEAKNESS OVER THE SW ATLC WIDENS DAY 3 AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE ERN ATLC RIDGE BECOMES BROADER AS THE DEEP VORTEX OVER THE NE ATLC DEPARTS THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE GULF..CARIB AND ATLC WATERS. THE MID ATLC RIDGE WILL BE WEAK AND ELY TRADES MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 4 TWO FAIRLY STRONG SHORTAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT HEAD TOWARD THE NE US. THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD WHILE THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS WWD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W BECOMES ORIENTED MORE NE TO SW AND PENETRATES THE N CENTRAL CARIB. THE CENTRAL ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND SHIFTS TO OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 20N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY E TO ALONG 73W WITH LITTLE WIND PROBLEM. A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NW GULF COAST WITH N WINDS TO 20 KT AT BEST. REMAINDER OF GULF AND CARIB AREAS SHOULD HAVE LIGHT WINDS. ALSO ATLC W OF 50W UNDER WEAK GRADIENT DAY 4 WITH LIGHT WINDS. ELY TRADES SIMILAR E OF 50W. FINALLY DAY 5 FINDS THE WESTERLIES BECOMING MORE ZONAL TAKING THE SHORTWAVES EWD OVER THE ATLC INSTEAD OF DIGGING SE INTO THE WEAKNESS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIB DAY 5 WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGES ALONG 20N OVER THE SRN GULF AND NW CARIB AND ONE OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 20N E OF 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL EXTEND FROM APALACHEE BAY SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIB AND ATLC W OF 60W WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS DO ELY TRADES E OF 50W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ080 AND GMZ084 TIL 00Z 17 OCT. FORECASTER RRG