000 AGXX40 KNHC 140533 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SAT OCT 14 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A DEEP COLD VORTEX N OF THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT. THE THERMAL GRADIENT IS PRODUCING A STRONG SUBTROPIC JET ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN IT..ONE OF WHICH IS ALONG 72W MOVING E 40 KT. A MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE MID ATLC TONIGHT ALONG 45W SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC. A SECOND MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES ALONG 20N OVER THE GULF AND NW CARIB. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 100W MOVING OVER S TX. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 22N66W AND WAS STATIONARY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE ALONG 42W..73W AND 90W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL FL THEN WWD TO 26N95W. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY BETWEEN 60W AND 80W AS A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES SE OVER NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 44W WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO SLIDE EWD TO THE NW CARIB. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH A VORT CENTER MOVES TO THE NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NW GULF AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL AND E AND SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT. A POLAR HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD OVER THE SE US BUT WINDS OVER THE ATLC BETWEEN 60W AND 80W REMAIN LIGHT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS E OF 60W WITH ELY TRADES TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 22N E OF 50W. FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY LOOSES IT'S GRIP ON THE ERN US AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WNW. THE GULF RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL BETWEEN 55W AND 70W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A 1002 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL INCREASES MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THAT REGION. GOOD FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT NOT A BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP..BUT THE GFS MODEL STRENGTHENS A VORT MAX WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW GULF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE STRANGE AND THUS THE MODEL INCREASES WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE NW GULF WHICH MAY BE TO HIGH IF THE LOW FAILS TO DEEPEN. THE POLAR HIGH MOVES TO THE CAROLINA COAST WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT THAT MOVES TO 65W. NW CARIB WINDS INCREASE SOME TO 20 KT MAINLY N OF 19N. LITTLE CHANGE TO ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC. OUTLOOK PERIOD... DAY 3 FINDS THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE BULGING NWD OVER THE ERN US WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ENE TO 85W AND WEAKENING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS IN THE STRONG SRN BRANCH. WHATS LEFT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG 60W WITH WEAK IMPULSES DIGGING S OF 30N. THE MID ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS ALONG 45W. A CLOSED VORTEX FORMS FROM THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC AND CENTERS ITSELF NEAR THE AZORES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 LOOK FOR STRONG GUSTY SLY WINDS TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE POLAR HIGH MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE N CAR COAST MAINTAINING GUSTY NE WINDS TO 20 KT W OF A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 20N68W. NW CARIB N OF 18N W OF 75W CONTINUE TO HAVE GUSTY NE AND E WINDS TO 20 KT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. ATLC TRADES TO 20 KT REMAIN S OF 20N E OF 50W. FOR DAY 4 A STRENGTHENING W AND SW MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN US WHILE THE GULF RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SRN GULF. STILL THE WESTERLIES EXPLOIT THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN 50W AND 65W WITH WEAK IMPULSES DROPPING SE AND MAINTAINING THE TROUGH ALONG 55W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 45W WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE AZORES LIFTS NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 GULF WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE POLAR HIGH MOVES EWD. THE OLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD TO NEAR 31N52W BACK TO PUERTO RICO WITH WEAK FRONTAL WAVES. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT WITH NW CARIB WINDS OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS DAY 4 WITH ELY TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT CONFINED TO 10N TO 20N E OF 50W. FINALLY DAY 5 FINDS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDING NE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AS HEIGHTS LOWER OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE MID LEVEL WEAKNESS BETWEEN 50W AND 70W AND EVEN DIMINISH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS HELD FIRM OVER THE MID ATLC FOR TWO WEEKS. THE REASON THE SHORTWAVES HAVE SUCCESS IS BECAUSE THE DEEP CUTOFF OVER THE ERN ATLC RAPIDLY EXIT EWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER ALL AREAS BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. SOME MODERATE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W AS PRESSURES REMAIN LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTS EWD TO ALONG 31N50W 19N65W. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE REMAINS E OF 50W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG