000 AGXX40 KNHC 130533 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM FRI OCT 13 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. OVER THE WRN HEMISPHERE TONIGHT A DEEP WINTER LIKE VORTEX CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES IS MOVING SLOWLY ESE. IT'S CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ERN HALF OF THE US S TO 25N AND E TO 60W. A MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALONG 50W CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO EQUALLY STRONG DEEP TROUGHS. THE ERN ATLC TROUGH IS ALONG 30W. S OF 25N A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES ALONG 20N. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK PRESSURE FEATURES DOMINATE THE SCENE. A MOSTLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND ANOTHER FRONT WAS ENTERING THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE HSF AREA. A WEAK LOW WAS NEAR 22N64W AND STATIONARY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE ALONG 37W..67W AND 81W ALL MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LATER DAY 1 SOME INDICATION THE RIDGE ALONG 20N WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE ALONG 50W SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO BOHEMOTH MID LEVEL LOWS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE N GULF COAST FRONT MOVES S INTO THE NRN GULF WITH NE WINDS TO 20 KT. REMAINDER OF THE REGION UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. FOR DAY 2 THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN US SHOWS SIGNS OF DIGGING SE ALONG 70W ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO BUILD NW OVER THE WRN GULF INTO THE PLAINS. THE MID ATLC RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS A RESULT OF THIS DIGGING TROUGH BUT SHIFTS E TO ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT THAT MOVES SE OF FL. THE FRONT HOLDS UP STATIONARY OVER THE NW GULF AND ENHANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGHT TO PRODUCE SE WINDS TO 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING E OF 55W BUT TRADES REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT. REMAINDER OF THE REGION MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. OUTLOOK PERIOD... DAY 3 FINDS THE COLD AIR IN THE BIG TROUGH SHIFTING EWD ALLOWING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SOME BETWEEN 50W AND 70W WHERE A SEPARATION IN THE TWO RIDGES ALLOWS THIS TO OCCUR. A DEEP VORTEX FORMS OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC. THE VORTEX IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NW GULF IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT SLIPS IN THROUGH THE RIDGE IN THAT AREA. THE GFS SHOWS PRETTY GOOD DEVELOPMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK WAVE AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. WE'LL SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT RUNS SHOW. THE POLAR HIGH FOLLOWING THE OLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST DAY 3 WITH MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WHICH NOW MOVES E OF THE BAHAMAS. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. ELY TRADES E OF 55W MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT WITH THE ATLC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 33N40W. FOR DAY 4 LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES TO FORCE OUT THE REMAINING COLD AIR IN THE ONCE DOMINATE TROUGH. A NEW STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALONG 95W WHILE THE WEAKER ONE SHIFTS TO 83W. THE CLOSED VORTEX OVER THE ERN ATLC DRIFTS SSW WHILE THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 LOOK FOR THE LOW OVER THE NW GULF TO WEAKEN AS IT'S UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EWD. THE NEW SHORTWAVE LOWERS PRESSURES OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND SLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE E COAST RIDGE DRIFTS EWD WITH NE WINDS TO 20 KT W OF 65W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND ELY TRADES MOSTLY 15 KT E OF 50W. FINALLY DAY 5 FINDS THE SHORTWAVES IN THE SRN BRANCH TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES AND BEGIN TO DIG OUT A LARGER TROUGH ALONG 50W TO 60W. THE STRONG WLY FLOW OVER THE MID CONUS BECOMES MORE SWLY WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF STRENGTHENS SOME. THE MID ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME BUT REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG 45W. WHILE THE ERN ATLC VORTEX EXITS EWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE GFS MODEL MAKES ANOTHER ATTEMPT AT DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW MOVING IT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS N OF OUR REGION. GULF WINDS RELAX AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SOME WAVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE ON THE OLD FRONT E OF 65W. THE MID ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND ELY TRADES DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT E OF 50W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG