000 AGXX40 KNHC 121826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM THU OCT 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SWWD TO NEAR 25N89W WHICH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SWLY TO BRIEFLY NWLY THEN NELY MAINLY OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. THE MAJOR FEATURE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA IS AN EARLY SEASON ARCTIC- LIKE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO E TEXAS/LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT IS SLATED TO ENTER THE FAR NRN GULF OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY WWD ALONG 27N TO THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRI. FRONT WILL PIVOT SWD OVER THE E GULF AND NWD OVER THE W GULF AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA/FL STRAITS NNWD THROUGH 26N90W TO 28N96W AND STALL BY SAT NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ROBUST MODEL ON THIS FRONT WITH THE NAM/NOGAPS/ECMWF ALL SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE WEAKER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW AND LIMITED HEIGHT FALLS FCST OVER THE NRN GULF. HOWEVER GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE FAR NRN REACHES OF THE GULF. OUTLOOK... GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND DEVELOPS LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SUN AND MOVES IT NWD ON MON WITH S/SE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH THE LOW. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS WILL BUMP UP S/SE RETURN FLOW TO 20-25 KT SUN AND MON OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. BY TUE S/SWLY 15 KT RETURN FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC... A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SWINGING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WITH LITTLE MORE THAN WIND SHIFTS ACROSS THE BOUNDARIES. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF LOW PRES MAY BE DEVELOPING AT THE FAR NRN END OF A TROPICAL NEAR 22N66W...WITH ANOTHER CENTER ALREADY ESTABLISHED NEAR 18N65W. GFS/NOGAPS LATCH ONTO THE 18N65W CENTER AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM WWD THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND WEAKEN IT OVER/NEAR HISPANIOLA WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND NAM MEANDER A BROAD SYSTEM NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THEN DRIVE THE SYSTEM NEWD ALONG A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. THE LATTER SUITE OF MODELS IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE NORTHERN LOW NEAR 22N66W. IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF THE SYSTEM BY THEN. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE GREATER IMPACT ON THE AREA AS IT ENTERS THE FAR W PORTION FRI NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 25N80W BY SAT NIGHT USHERING IN NE WINDS OF 20 KT. OUTLOOK...FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO FL STRAITS BY LATE SUN AND FROM 26N65W TO 23N80W LATE MON THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE IN THE SAME LOCATION TUE. WHATS LEFT OF TROPICAL LOW MOVES NEWD ALONG THE FRONT AND LOCALLY INCREASES NE WINDS TO 20+ KT THROUGH EARLY TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MUCH WEAKER THAN NORMAL TRADES OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH THE DEPARTURES GREATEST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE INDICATED. FURTHER E...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES NEAR 18N65W IS MOVING WWD. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN A VERY WEAK GRADIENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE SOME MODERATE NE WINDS FUNNELING ACROSS NRN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN N OF 20N LATE MON INTO TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB