000 AGXX40 KNHC 110528 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM WED OCT 11 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO STRAITS OF FL THEN ACROSS SRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N TO NEAR 23N93W...THEN A THIN BOUNDARY OF TOWERING CU IS LIFTING N TO NEAR 27N94W WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOSES IDENTITY AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS. SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE FL BIG BEND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE TODAY AND BRIDGE THROUGH FRONTAL REMNANTS SE GULF OF MEXICO EFFECTIVELY WASHING IT OUT. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER SW ATLC WATERS REACHING NEAR BERMUDA AROUND SUNRISE THU. A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO RACE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND ATLC WATERS MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONT NEAR BERMUDA FRI. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE OVER FL REACHING SRN FL AROUND SUNRISE THU WITH A RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 24N-25N TO THE E OF 85W. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NRN GULF WATERS. THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT. EVEN THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF TO 25-30 KT RANGE OVER NW GULF WATERS. MODEL FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH MARINE LAYER AND SEA SURFACE TEMPS STILL WARM OVER NRN GULF SHELF WATERS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MIXING TO THE SURFACE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH EXISTING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BRIEFLY FRI OVER NW GULF WITH FRONT EXTENDING FROM FL BIG BEND TO SE TX BY MID MORNING...AND ACROSS GULF ALONG 25N AT SUNSET FRI. BY SUNRISE SAT FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO EXTREME SE FL THEN LIES STATIONARY ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N. LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL TX SAT NIGHT WILL LIFT FRONTAL REMNANTS N OVER GULF OF MEXICO IN SLY RETURN FLOW NEAR 20 KT. COLD FRONT CONTINUES E OVER SW ATLC PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA BY SUNRISE MON. TROPICS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BEEN MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. LATEST SSMI AND LATE AFTERNOON QSCAT PASS SHOULD BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG WAVE AXIS BUT ELY WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THE 15 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS BAY OF CAMPECHE. ANOTHER WAVE OVER CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 12 KT WITH CYCLONIC TURNING ON THE LATE AFTERNOON QSCAT PASS BUT ONLY ION 15 KT RANGE. A THIRD WAVE ALONG 60W HAS MOVED W OF UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 23N56W BUT ITS TROUGH EXTENDS S TO NEAR TRINIDAD. CLASSIC BLOW UP SITUATION WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N55W. E WINDS 15-20 KT E OF WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY BUOY 41000 AND BUOY 41101. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING W WITH TIME SO CONVECTION MAY PERSIST TODAY. A FOUR WAVE ALONG 33W WILL MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE SUN NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ080 FRI. FORECASTER NELSON