000
AGXX40 KNHC 100544
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 AM TUE OCT 10 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO EXTREME SE FL THEN 
BECOMES DIFFUSE ACROSS ERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N...THEN 
CONTINUES NW TO SE TX. SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER VA WILL SE TO SC 
TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
BRIDGING THROUGH FRONTAL REMNANTS. SO DONT EXPECT MUCH OF A 
BOUNDARY TO SHIFT N AS A WARM FRONT OVER NW GULF WATERS...BUT 
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING N. IN THE MEANTIME...THE 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER SW ATLC WATERS WITH A 
SECONDARY TROUGH FOLLOWING TONIGHT AND WED...MERGING WITH THE 
INITIAL FRONT THU ALONG 65W...WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW 
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 

THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S OVER FL 
REACHING SRN FL AROUND SUNRISE THU WITH A RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 24-25N. THIS WILL ALLOW NEXT COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE INTO NRN GULF WATERS. THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES 
WITH STRENGTH OF NLY FLOW BEHIND FRONT. GFS STILL HINTS AT BRIEF 
GALE FORCE...ALL OTHER MODELS ARE IN 25-30 KT RANGE. WITH MARINE 
LAYER AND SEA SURFACE TEMPS STILL WARM OVER NRN GULF SHELF 
WATERS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MIXING TO THE SURFACE SO WILL 
CONTINUE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BRIEFLY FRI AS FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FL TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE. BY SUNRISE SAT 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO SE FL THEN WSW TO 
WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BY SUNRISE SUN FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA 
TO NW CUBA WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS MOVING BACK OVER WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO. GFS HINTING AT LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NE MEXICO DRAGGING 
THE WARM FRONT N TO ERN TX SUN.               

TROPICS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER W CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN MOVING W 
ABOUT 13 KT. LATEST SSMI AND LATE AFTERNOON QSCAT PASS INDICATE 
ELY WINDS 15-20 KT RANGE EXTEND ABOUT 800 NM E OF WAVE. ANOTHER 
WAVE OVER E CARIBBEAN IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 12 
KT...PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER. 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT NOTED ALONG 
WAVE AXIS AND THE WAVE IS ENHANCING A LOT OF WEAK SHOWERS FROM 
15N TO 19N E OF 70W. A THIRD WAVE ALONG 57W IS MOVING W IN PHASE 
WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 20N58W. MOSTLY E WINDS 15 KT E OF 
WAVE AXIS BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF 56W AND WILL 
LIKELY SPREAD W INTO TROPICAL ATLC AREA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 
GENERALLY EXPECT TRADES TO RELAX AS THESE WAVES MOVE W OF AREA 
AND ATLC RIDGE SHIFT S TO ALONG 24N.   

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ080 FRI.

FORECASTER NELSON