000 AGXX40 KNHC 090516 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM MON OCT 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CUTOFF MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST ENE OF JAX TONIGHT MOVING E 15 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR 25N52W WITH LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG 49W..63W AND 73W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST E OF FL THEN BACK SW OVER CENTRAL FL AND THE CENTRAL GULF. WINDS N OF 22N MOSTLY LIGHT WHILE S OF 22N MODERATE ELY IN CARIB AND ATLC. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE CUTOFF LOW TO CONTINUE ENE TO 32N76W AS IT BEGINS TO RIDE OVER THE MID ATLC RIDGE WHICH REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG 25N50W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC RIDGE CENTER 1021 MB NEAR 28N47W WILL MAINTAIN ELY TRADES TO 20 KT S OF 22N. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 KT S OF 17N E OF 77W. THE WEAK FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS. GULF WINDS MOSTLY NE 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 2 THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ENE TO NEAR 72W. THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN DAY 2 W OF 80W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 26N48W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ATLC RIDGE 1020 MB LOCATED NEAR 28N47W WITH ELY TRADES CONFINED TO S OF 22N E OF 65W AT 10 TO 15 KT OCCASIONALLY 20 KT E OF 55W. CARIB WINDS DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE FRONT OVER FL MOVES E TO 75W WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT BECOME MORE SELY W OF 90W DAY 2. OUTLOOK PERIOD... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NRN PLAINS DAY 3 AND BEGINS TO BUILD A RIDGE OFF THE NE US COAST. THIS RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE EXITING ALONG 65W. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG 25N50W BUT BEGINS TO BUILD SW TOWARD THE NE CARIB. A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES E/W ALONG 20N W OF 80W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE COLD FRONT OR WHATS LEFT OF IT LIFTS NE ALONG THE NRN BORDER OF THE AREA WITH SW WINDS TO 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE 1019 MB REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 30N49W. TRADES MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT UNDER A WEAK RIDGE DAY 3. THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER THE NRN PLANES AMPLIFIES DAY 4 AS IT MOVES TO THE MIDWEST. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE NRN GULF COAST DAY 4. MID ATLC RIDGING HOLDS ALONG 50W BUT MERGES WITH THE RIDGE ALONG 20N OVER THE NRN CARIB. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS WEAK WITH THE ATLC RIDGE CENTER WEAKENING TO 1018 MB NEAR 30N47W WITH A WEAK AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE ERN GULF. WINDS OVER THE REGION ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED. A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TX IS MOVING SE. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD OVER THE NE US WITH TIGHT PACKING OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT LINES BETWEEN 30N AND 40N. MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ALONG 20N WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE MID ATLC ALONG 45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL 30 TO 35 KT GUSTS W OF 90W. THIS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN LAST NIGHTS RUN OF THE MODEL. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE IF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD LIKE THE GFS MODEL IS NOW SHOWING. THEREFORE GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND CONFINED TO THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON WITH STILL WARM GULF WATERS ITS' HARD TO GET A GOOD GALE CONDITION BECAUSE THE COLD AIR GETS MODIFIED SO RAPIDLY. OTHERWISE THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT'S UPPER SUPPORT DIMINISHES AND ATLC TRADES ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS ALSO MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080 GALE CONDITION DEVELOPING EARLY FRI BEHIND A COLD FRONT. FORECASTER RRG