000 AGXX40 KNHC 081739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 PM SUN OCT 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 15 UTC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF TAMPA BAY WWD TO NEAR 27.5N92W AND A SFC TROUGH ALONG 95W EXTENDING NWD TO 28N. BOTH FEATURES RESULTING IN NOTHING MORE THAN A WINDSHIFT ACROSS THEIR RESPECTIVE BOUNDARIES WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TOP SAG FURTHER S OVER THE GULF E OF 90W THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH RETURN SE FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESS RETREATS WED WITH LIGHT S TO SW FLOW SPREADING OVER THE GULF. BIG CHANGES IN STORE LATE THU AND FRI AS ANOMOLOUSLY DEEP FOR OCTOBER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PUSHING THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON INTO THE FAR NW GULF THU EVENING. FRONT RAPIDLY SWEEPS SEWD AND EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA THROUGH 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. GFS FCSTS 10-M WINDS OF 30-35 KT OVER THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AND RIGHTLY SO GIVEN THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS GRAD... 40-45 KT 925 MB WINDS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-925 MB LAYER. THUS WILL MENTION GALES EXPECTED LATE THU AND FRI FOR THE WRN GULF ZONES. STRONG NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 12 FT IN THIS EVENT...WHICH MAY BE A TAD UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OFF THE SC COAST TO 28N81W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SFC LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO E-CENTRAL FL BY THEN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM DESPITE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OUTLOOK...WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SWLY FLOW N OF 25N AND LIGHT SE FLOW S OF 25N WED AND THU. ON FRI...APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE SE CONUS RESULTS IN INCREASING SW WINDS TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 75W EARLY FRI...THEN FRONT SWINGS INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRI AND EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA BY FRI EVENING. NW WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 KT AND GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG 1000-850 MB THICKNESS GRAD AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS FRONT APPROACHES THE ATLC RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO ALONG 23N BY LATE FRI WITH SWLY FLOW EXTENDING WELL INTO THE FCST AREA BY THEN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 80W EXTENDING EWD INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N/20N. STRENGTH OF TRADES CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE THE GFS INCREASES WINDS TO 20 KT OR SO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH ENTERS THE AREA LATE WED AND THU AND TRACKS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NW GULF...GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THU AND FRI. SW GULF...GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI. FORECASTER COBB