000 AGXX40 KNHC 080503 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SUN OCT 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A CLOSED CYCLONIC VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER NE S CAR DRIFTING SSW. THE CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE REGION BETWEEN 70W AND 90W N OF 23N. A MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE DEEP S ALONG 95W AND THE MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE IS LOCATED NEAR 27N54W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE ALONG 41W..60W..70W AND 91W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE MID ATLC SURFACE RIDGE 1024 MB WAS NEAR 33N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO 31N71W. A WEAK LOW 1015 MB WAS OFF THE GA COAST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SW ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE CUTOFF LOW TO CONTINUE S TO SE GA. THE RIDGE ALONG 95W WEAKENS WHILE THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM. ON THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 20 KT S OF 17N E OF 80W. THE ATLC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 30N50W AT 1021 MB WITH ELY TRADES S OF 23N AT 15 TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EWD TO NEAR 32N75W AS THE RIDGE ALONG 95W STRENGTHENS. THE MID ATLC RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 26N50W WHILE THE WESTERLIES DIG SE OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA COAST MOVES EWD WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. GULF WINDS PICK UP A BIT TO 15 KT N OF 25N. CARIB WINDS RELAX SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS. THE ATLC RIDGE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 29N50W AT 1021 MB WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ELY TRADES. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND BEGINS TO MOVE ENE AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 85W STRENGTHENS. THIS WEAKENS THE RIDGE ALONG 95W AND MOVES IT EWD OVER THE DEEP S. THE MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 26N50W AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE WEAK LOW OFF THE GA COAST MOVES NE WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE FL COAST WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH A WEAK GRADIENT. THE ATLC RIDGE CENTER REMAINS NEAR 29N49W AT 1020 MB WITH MOSTLY MODERATE ELY TRADES DAY 3. FOR DAY 4 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENING ALONG 68W AS RIDGING N OF THE WAVE INCREASES RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL FLOW N OF 25N W OF 80W INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SW TO NEAR 25N54W WHILE TROUGHING WEAKENS OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE WEAK LOW OFF THE CAR COAST MOVES NE ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING WWD ALONG 25N. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATLC RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE REMAINING NEAR 30N49W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES. FINALLY DAY 5 FINDS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SE OVER THE MIDWEST LOWERING HEIGHTS W OF 70W. STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND SW ATLC W OF 70W. THIS BEGINS TO WARE DOWN THE MID ATLC RIDGE WHICH TRIES TO HOLD NEAR 25N50W. WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE ERN ATLC REMAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A STRONG COLD FRONT..STRONGEST OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON MOVES TO THE TX GULF COAST WITH N WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY E AND SE WITH STRONG WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS S TO 23-24N WITH THE RIDGE CENTER REMAINING OVER MID OCEAN. CARIB WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AS DO ELY TRADES E OF 60W S OF 22N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG