000 AGXX40 KNHC 070543 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM SAT OCT 07 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLC TONIGHT MOVING SWD. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NW GULF WHILE ANOTHER MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE ATLC NEAR 30N53W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE NEAR 34W..54W..65W AND 88W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST OFF THE N GULF COAST MOVING SLOWLY SE. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURES WITH THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING S TO NEAR 33N80W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 20 KT S OF 17N E OF 80W. THE ATLC RIDGE 1023 MB WILL BE NEAR 31N51W WITH ELY TRADES S OF 22N TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 LOOK FOR THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO MOVE TO NEAR JAX STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF AND THE MID ATLC RIDGE NEAR 27N54W. ON THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND JUST OFF THE NE FL COAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WINDS. CARIB WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE 1022 MB REMAINS NEAR 30N50W WITH ELY TRADES 15 TO 20 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO LIFT ENE TO NEAR 32N75W AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF BUILDS NE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID ATLC RIDGE WHICH HOLDS FIRM NEAR 26N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE NEAR 29N67W ON AN OLD TROUGH. THE ATLC RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 29N51W A LITTLE WEAKER AT 1019 MB AND THUS ELY TRADES WEAKEN TO 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT WITH GULF WINDS MOSTLY NE AND E 10 TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 4 THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES TO ALONG 70W AS THE UPPER FLOW W OF 80W BECOMES MORE WLY AND THE NW GULF RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE ATLC MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 27N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A WEAK LOW 1011 MB MOVES NE TO NEAR 33N63W WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 25N75W. WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W WILL BE LIGHT. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ALSO. CARIB WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT UNDER A WEAK GRADIENT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AT 1020 MB NEAR 29N49W WITH ELY TRADES ABOUT THE SAME. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. THE SHORTWAVE ALONG 70W BEGINS TO WASH OUT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OFF THE ATLC COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 27N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 LOOK FOR INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W TO 20 KT AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W AND CARIB BECOME MORE SELY AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE AT 1020 MB NEAR 30N48W WITH THE TRADES REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 20N E OF 60W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG