000 AGXX40 KNHC 060526 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM FRI OCT 06 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A INVERTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE SW ATLC ALONG 75W TONIGHT MOVING SLOWLY EWD. A NEW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING RAPIDLY SE. A STATIONARY MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER TX AND EXTENDED SE OVER THE GULF AND NW CARIB. AN ENLONGATED MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 26N COVERED THE ATLC E OF 65W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WERE ALONG 49W..63W AND 82W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A PERSISTENT TROUGH WAS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS TO 31N70W. THE ATLC RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR 33N45W AND COVERED THE AREA E OF 70W. MODERATE ELY TRADES WERE EVIDENT FROM SSMI AND QUIKSCAT E OF 70W AND OVER MUCH OF THE CARIB. GULF WINDS WERE NELY TO 20 KT. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE TO THE MID ATLC STATES AND BEGIN TO KICK OUT THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE BAHAMAS. MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM FROM THE BAHAMA TROUGH AND MOVE NE TO 30N69W. THE ATLC RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 33N47W WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WINDS. GULF WINDS DECREASE SOME AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE N GULF COAST. FOR DAY 2 A STRONG CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS AND DRIFT SWD. MID LEVEL RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR 33N95W AND 29N54W. ON THE SURFACE LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST AND INTO THE MID GULF WITH NE WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 KT S OF 18N AS DO ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC S OF 23N E OF 65W. THE ATLC RIDGE CENTER 1022 MB REMAINS NEAR 31N52W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVES SSW TO NEAR NE FL SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 94W WHICH IS WEAKENING AND THE ATLC RIDGE NEAR 27N53W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OFF THE NE FL COAST AND BACK OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE BUT ATLC TRADES WEAKEN AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO 1021 MB. FOR DAY 4 LOOK FOR THE CUTOFF LOW TO BEGIN TO LIFT NE TO NEAR 31N75W WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HANGS ON ALONG 90W AND THE ATLC RIDGE HOLDS NEAR 26N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FL AND BACK OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF WITH MOSTLY NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT S OF 18N AND ATLC TRADES ABOUT THE SAME. THE ATLC RIDGE CHANGES LITTLE HOLDING AT 1021 MB NEAR 30N50W. FINALLY FOR DAY 5 THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 93W BREAKING DOWN WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS ACCELERATES THE SHORTWAVE NE OF THE AREA TO NEAR BERMUDA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLC HOLDS NEAR 26N50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 31N65W THEN BACK SW TO THE NRN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FL. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AT 1021 MB NEAR 29N48W WITH TRADES 15 TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG