000 AGXX40 KNHC 051805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM THU OCT 05 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... AN AMPLIFIED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC WATERS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE TO 31N69W. AN UPPER LOW IS ATTEMPTING TO CUT-OFF W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 28N77W...AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED WINDS TO 20 KT SURROUNDING THE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BE HIGHER IN THE TSTMS. SEAS ARE HIGHEST JUST E OF THE TROUGH DUE TO ELY SWELL...AND THEY ARE LIKELY UP TO 8 FT WHERE THE WINDS ARE STRONGEST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLC BEGINNING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SLY WINDS E OF THE TROUGH TO 20 KT THROUGH SAT. THEN...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DROP S AND CUT-OFF...TAKING A POSITION NEAR JACKSONVILLE FL BY SUN AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ON SAT...BUT NONE ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ANY KIND OF SURFACE LOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK TROUGH OR MAYBE A LOW WOULD DROP S FROM THE WATERS OFF THE CAROLINAS ON SUN THEN LIFT N OF THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE MON. A NEW TROUGH MOVES TO THE CENTRAL PART BY TUE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES N BUT WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE ELY TRADES OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SAT WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW OR JUST TO 20 KT BY MON AND TUE OVER THE SAME AREA. SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 10 FT IN ELY SWELL OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY TONIGHT AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AND 6-7 FT SWELL WILL PROPAGATE WWD TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON AND TUE AS THE WINDS RELAX. AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ALSO PROPAGATES WWD AND REACHES THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY FRI...BRINGING WITH IT ELY SWELLS TO 10 FT. AGAIN...WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL MON AND TUE WHEN THE RIDGE WEAKENS. GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY WITH WINDS TO 20 KT BLOWING IN A CONTINUOUS FETCH FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 FT AT THE W GULF BUOYS...AND ISOLATED AREAS OF 8 FT ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE FETCH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS OBVIOUS TURNING IN THE CLOUD FIELD NEAR THE TROUGH...THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT ANYTHING TROPICAL IS DEVELOPING AT THIS POINT. WINDS OVER THE GULF DECREASE ON FRI AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND OROGRAPHIC FUNNELING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH TUE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED OSCILLATE TO THE 20 KT LEVEL AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND WEAKENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG